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Category: Polls

YouGov polls: Thread 1 “the decline of Brown”

YouGov polls: Thread 1 “the decline of Brown”

Labour’s wannabee leader continues to trail the Bullingdon boy Two threads this morning both from new YouGov polls in the Daily Telegraph. The first coverered in the previous story shows a sensational rise in support for the Greens ahead of next week’s election for the Edinburgh parliament. The second, which is the papers main lead, is from the main April survey by YouGov. The focus is on Gordon’s position in relation to Cameron in the forced choice question of whether,…

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YouGov polls: Thread 2 “the rise of the Greens”

YouGov polls: Thread 2 “the rise of the Greens”

YouGov finds 9% support for the party in the Scotland elections An extraordinary poll next Thursday’s Scottish elections by YouGov for the Daily Telegraph shows a big surge for the Greens suggesting that they might provide the biggest sensation in next Thursday’s election – and maybe not just north of the border. In the list vote where people express a preference for a party for the “top-up” seats YouGov found with changes on last week: SNP 31% (-4): LAB 27%…

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Is Labour a certainty in Wales?

Is Labour a certainty in Wales?

Could there be a shock west of Offa’s Dyke as well? While all the focus for the May 3rd elections has been on the possibility of an SNP win in Scotland is there a possibility that Labour’s position might not be as secure in Wales as the betting and the limited number of polls have suggested? Certainly, unlike Scotland, the battle for the Welsh Assembly has failed to attract the interest of punters, as the above Betfair prices show, with…

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Will Labour pay a price if there is no contest?

Will Labour pay a price if there is no contest?

The Guardian steps up the rhetoric against a Brown coronation? The feature of its ICM poll that the Guardian focuses on this morning is the hugely negative response to questions about whether Gordon Brown should take over from Tony Blair unopposed. Under the heading “When in doubt, trust the voters” the paper’s main leader notes “Many Labour people have persuaded themselves that a leadership contest to succeed Tony Blair would not be, in that dreadful word so beloved of party…

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Is Gord making ground on the Bullingdon mob?

Is Gord making ground on the Bullingdon mob?

Big boost for Lib Dems in latest ICM poll The ICM April survey for the Guardian tomorrow is just out and the headline figures show a reduction in the Tory lead and a three point increase in the Lib Dem share. The totals with changes on last month are: CON 37%(-4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 21% (+3). Of the minor parties both UKIP and the Greens are on 2%. There was also a drop in the Tory lead when voters…

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CR Poll – Labour down to 1983 levels

CR Poll – Labour down to 1983 levels

New poll suggests the Tories could get a majority of 6 seats The April poll by Communicate Research for the Independent this morning has some bleak news for Labour as it prepares for next week’s elections and the coming leadership change. For the survey reports the following with changes on last month – CON 36%(+1): LAB 27%(-4): LD 22%(+2). The detailed data, which helpfully is published this morning as well (other pollsters please note), reports shares for the minor parties…

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Sarkozy ahead in the second round polls

Sarkozy ahead in the second round polls

It’s a two thread morning on PBC With such a lot of developments affecting political betting markets going on both in the UK and across the Channel there are two threads this morning. Gordon Brown is on the previous one. The above table, adapted from Wikipedia, shows the results of four telephone surveys that were taken last night after the first round results were known. Interestingly the two pollsters that most under-estimated Royal ahead of yesterday’s election are showing the…

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Which French pollster has got tomorrow right?

Which French pollster has got tomorrow right?

Does the Le Pen support explain the gap between the firms? The above table has been adapted from the excellent list in Wikipedia and shows the range of opinion polling in the final week before the crucial first round of voting tomorrow. The top two tomorrow evening then go into a run off election on May 6th. So we have a polling range from a 6.5% margin for Sarkorzy over Royal to just 1%. Both cannot be right. In 2002…

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