Welcome to our guest – Sir Robert Worcester The big news this morning is the latest poll from Mori – the firm that was set up by Bob Worcester – is showing a Labour lead of 7%. Ipsos-Mori as it is now known has been polling in the UK for longer than anybody else and has by far and away the best web-site. Bob himself is a frequent commentator and has detailed knowledge of UK politics and opinion trends going…
Two polls give Labour doubt digit leads Back in May and June I was among a number of commentators who were saying that we would really have to wait until November before we would get a clear view of how the new leadership at Number 10 had changed the political environment. Well it is looking as though that November suggestion might be when the general election itself takes place. The polls have moved so firmly and decisively in Labour’s favour…
Why is it that the lead amongst 2005 voters is only about 3%? One of the great new polling sources that we have now that we didn’t have last time is a breakdown, segment by segment, of people’s current intentions based on what they did at the last election. This approach was pioneered by ICM just twelve months ago and now all the telephone pollsters present their detailed data in this way. This gives poll-watchers a whole range of new…
Do these make the general election decision even harder? Having worked for BBC national news for nearly a decade and a half and having been closely involved in politics since I cannot remember a Friday morning when a batch of local councils by elections has made the headlines. The only times the news editors have taken notice of these contests in the past has been when the BNP or similar parties has made progress. Maybe it was the revelation at…
What margin would trigger a visit to see the Queen? For all the bravado, leaking, teasing and wind-ups Gord is not going to risk his premiership on the basis of current polling evidence. What he needs to see is how the public react after they’ve been exposed to the Tories and, in particular, to the big speech by David Cameron. For much of the poll movement to Labour has been driven by the almost total news blackout from the Tories…
What do you think of the “2nd best 2nd worst rule”? With so many polls showing such different pictures I’ve now adopted my own “rule of thumb” for working out what the big picture is. Basically I take the latest surveys from YouGov, Mori, ComRes, ICM and Populus and take the second lowest share for Labour and the second highest shares for the Tories and Lib Dems. Where two or more pollsters are showing the same high figure I take…
The Lib Dems move down as Labour hits a staggering 44% A YouGov poll for Channel Four news taken in the immediate aftermath of of Brown’s conference speech gives Labour an amazing 44% share with the Lib Dems down to 13%. These are the shares with the changes on the last poll from the internet pollster – CON 33% (nc): LAB 44% (+5): LD 13% (-3). This is the lowest Lib Dem share from YouGov since Kennedy moved on and…
Is there any evidence that Tory voters are switching? Labour party spinners are putting it about that a new type of voter is emerging that they are calling “Gordon Conservatives”. These are people, it is claimed, who voted Tory last time but have now decided to go with Labour. According to Ben Brogan over the weekend Labour research has started to identify this group. Because this is coming from private polls we cannot see the data but from my research…