It’s not just been LDs moving to the Tories? Whenever a new poll comes out now the standard explanation from Labour observers is to observe that much of the change that has seen the Tories move above a 40% share in six consecutive surveys has been the result of Lib Dems switching. Once a replacement for Ming is in place, it is argued, then the Tories will decline. We saw that overnight with the Independent‘s ComRes survey that had with…
..and a boost for the Lib Dems According to Ben Brogan of the Daily Mail tomorrow’s ComRes poll in the Independent will give the Tories an 8% lead. The shares, with changes on last month, are reported to be CON 41% (+7): LAB 33% (-3): LD 16% (nc) ComRes operates like Populus and ICM and weights by both past vote and certainty to vote. Its past vote formula has been less favourable to Labour than the other two. These figures…
Are we entering the era of Boat Race politics? The massive monthly face-to-face survey by Ipsos-Mori is out in the Observer this morning and shows that Labour, on 41% have just pipped ahead of the Tories on 40%. The actual figures with comparisons on a telephone survey from a sample of half the size from the same pollster a fortnight ago are CON 40%(-1): LAB 41%(+3): LD 13%(+2). Looking at today’s figures with the last directly comparable poll, Ipsos-Mori’s September…
..and a boost for Huhne in his bid for the Lib Dem leadership After the longest period without a national voting intention poll since August 2006 there’s the regular survey from the YouGov panel in the Daily Telegraph this morning which shows no change on the last poll from the firm almost two weeks ago. The headline figures are CON 41% (nc): LAB 38% (nc): LD 11% (nc) What we don’t have from YouGov is any adjustment for likelihood to…
Could there be a repeat of the 2006 private polling farce? Word has reached me that there is a possibility that the internet pollster, YouGov might be commissioned to carry out a survey of Lib Dem members on the Clegg-Huhne contest. Although previous YouGov surveys of Lib Dem and Labour members have achieved nothing like the accuracy of the firm’s Tory leadership polls they could provide a reasonable pointer to those planning to bet. Would they show that Clegg is…
Who’ll be up and who’ll be down in the next polling round? In the first 13 days of October polls there were nine separate national polls showing general election voting intentions. In the second 13 days it looks as if we will have had none and the signs are that there won’t be anything until the weekend at the earliest. Part of the problem is that many newspapers spent up their polling budgets in that intense period as all the…
Won’t this all be forgotten about in a few months? On the face of it this should be the moment for UKIP. The build-up has been going on for months, the Murdoch press has been winding up the rhetoric and now the treaty is finally happening. Yet according to the latest poll, the one in last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph from ICM, a paltry 3 people (NOT percent) said that their choice was the anti-EU party. Surely if this was the…
Do his polling advisers need to delve deeper? In trying to explain how Gordon Brown and Labour have got into their current mess there appears to have been one driving force – the massive Labour poll leads that at one stage touched 14%. The party believed that everything was going its way and, inevitably, there was pressure to convert the apparent surge in support into a fourth successive Labour victory. Yet were the poll leads ever as big as they…