Browsed by
Category: Polls

Will these be the winners in the first White House test?

Will these be the winners in the first White House test?

Will Iowa be a springboard in both nomination races? With just one month and one day to go before the first test of opinion in the 2008 White House race new opinion polls put Barack Obama ahead amongst Democrats and the former governor of Arkansas ahead in the Republican race. Both have gambled heavily on doing well in the Iowa state caucuses which traditionally start the process of the parties selecting their nominees. The social conservative who was born in…

Read More Read More

Why you cannot embargo opinion polls

Why you cannot embargo opinion polls

It must be assumed that market sensitive information will seep out In many ways I was greatly relieved last night that I was not given an advanced copy of the Sky News YouGov poll of Lib Dem party members on the Huhne-Clegg battle. For if I had had it then, like Iain Dale, I would have felt compelled to hang onto to the information until the stated time, 10pm, and not make available information that was highly market sensitive. After…

Read More Read More

Another pollster gives Dave a double digit lead

Another pollster gives Dave a double digit lead

Tory ICM margin moves from 6% to 11% A new poll from ICM for the News of the World shows a Tory lead of 11% and means that four surveys from four separate polling organisation in the past week have recorded significant moves to the Conservatives. Based on what limited information is available the shares are with changes on the last ICM survey a week ago – CON 41% (+4): LAB 30% (-1): LD 19% (-2). Given Labour’s appalling week…

Read More Read More

Tories take 9% lead with Ipsos-MORI

Tories take 9% lead with Ipsos-MORI

The Lib Dems jump 4 points Ipsos-Mori has just released its latest poll which follows the recent YouGov and ComRes surveys and shows a big increase in the Conservative lead. The shares, with comparisons on the last survey almost a month ago shows CON 41% (+1): LAB 32% (-3): LD 17% (+4). The survey was carried out by phone from November 23rd-27th so would have caught the first part of Labour’s dodgy donations scandal. The Tories will be delighted that…

Read More Read More

Does the latest poll under-state Labour’s plight?

Does the latest poll under-state Labour’s plight?

What if the fieldwork had taken place yesterday? As has been noted often here a key element when assessing a poll is the timing of the field-work. In fast-moving political situations like we’ve seen this week the “when” can play a critical role. So the overnight YouGov poll in today’s Telegraph has to be looked at in terms of when it took place. The figures, as discussed on the previous thread, were with changes on the previous survey from the…

Read More Read More

The YouGov poll – does it live up to its billing?

The YouGov poll – does it live up to its billing?

Is it as “devastating as we were led to believe? Earlier this evening this appeared on the Daily Telegraph blog – “Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Telegraph is, to quote our polling guru Anthony King, ‘one of the most devastating I’ve ever seen’. That’s quite a verdict from a man who has been looking at these things for four decades.” This set peoples’ imaginations racing especially as the last poll to publish, ComRes on Tuesday, had the Tories 13% ahead…

Read More Read More

How dangerous is the “sleaze” tag for Labour?

How dangerous is the “sleaze” tag for Labour?

Is the Sun right to call it “Labour’s Black Monday”? There’s a six letter word that figures prominently in a number of the papers this morning that could be very dangerous for Labour and Gordon. It’s “SLEAZE” – a description that in the 1992-1997 Tory government seemed to get attached to almost everything. It became almost a short-hand and was very difficult for the party to cast off. In fact it’s probably taken it a decade and a half to…

Read More Read More

It’s a staggering 13 Daves with ComRes

It’s a staggering 13 Daves with ComRes

Labour drop to an amazing 27% On the day that Labour’s general secretary had to resign over donation handling news is coming through of another terrible polling blow to Brown and his party. According to Iain Dale the November survey by ComRes for tomorrow’s Independent has these figures with comparisons on a month ago – CON 40% (-1): LAB 27% (-6): LD 18% (+2) Needless to say this is the biggest Tory lead that’s been recorded by ComRes ever. Back…

Read More Read More