Tories move to 45% share with the internet pollster A staggering poll by YouGov for tomorrow’s Sunday Times puts the Tories 13 points ahead of Labour on 45% – a level that the party has not been at in decades and would mean a substantial majority at the general election. The shares are with comparisons on the last YouGov poll nine days ago are: CON 45% (+2): LAB 32% (nc): LD 14% (nc) Putting these shares into the Anthony Wells…
Will the Obama drug smear rebound on Clinton? There’s one dominant theme that emerges whenever Hillary’s chances in the Democratic race are being assessed – the so-called “legendary brilliance of the Clinton machine”. But is it really up to that much? Are we being sold a line in order that nothing should impede the view that Hillary’s eventual success is inevitable? Certainly the events of the past day or so do little to inspire confidence. The big news items in…
How a 1% Labour lead in the economy becomes a 4% deficit Much of yesterday’s coverage of the December Populus poll in the Times focuses on the fact that Brown-Balls’ party still has a lead on the economy even if only of just one per cent Yet were we getting a proper picture in the papers because, as has been noted here before, findings like this include the views of those who have little or no intention of voting –…
Could this point to disproportionate Labour losses in the General Election? A main reason why my preferred Westminster general election spread bet is on the number of Labour, rather than Conservative, seats is what might happen north of the border where the party could have several more seats at risk than the conventional GB-based seat calculators are suggesting. This is reinforced by a new YouGov poll on voting intention for the Scottish parliament which suggests that there has been a…
Could it be closer than YouGov was suggesting? Chris Huhne’s campaign team have released details of a survey by an independent third party organisation which, they say, suggests a late surge in support of their man. The data purports to show that there’s been a big reduction in the number of undecided voters has fallen dramatically over the past ten days (from 38.4% to 17.5%) and that these members have plumped overwhelmingly for the older contender. These are the figures:…
Is performing well in the Commons the critical element? The above tables are from a YouGov poll of 300 politics academics in UK universities which was prepared for the Political Studies Association. First those questioned were asked to choose a maximum of five from a list of qualities should “matter most if a prime minister is to be successfulâ€. Then they were asked to choose from the same list which of the qualities “matter most†IN PRACTICE to those seeking…
Does the odds-on favourite need to do more than look good? With only nine to to go before voting ends in the Lib Dem leadership there’s been a lot of questioning in the Lib Dem blogsphere over whether the odds-on and strong polling favourite, Nick Clegg is the right choice. He is also the candidate on whom I have bet £900. One factor that has sparked off the concern was his lacklustre performance on Tuesday’s Today Programme on Radio 4….
Police are called in to find the “mole” With the donations row continue to dominate politics both north and south of the border there’s a new development in the Scotsman this morning – a suggestion that someone inside the party’s Scottish HQ is leaking information about donations. According to the paper’s main lead “..There is fury among senior Labour figures that someone with access to confidential information has been leaking it to the press and causing massive damage to the…