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Category: Polls

Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “No GE17 Youthquake” claims

Ex-YouGov President, Peter Kellner, raises doubts about the “No GE17 Youthquake” claims

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For those who have been following the BES report that concludes that there was no “youthquake” at GE17 the former President of YouGov, Peter Kellner, makes some controversial observations in Prospect casting doubt on the core conclusion that has made the headlines. He writes: “…their (BES) latest pronouncement goes way beyond what their data can support. They base their analysis on two post-election, face-to-face surveys after the 2015 and 2017 general elections. Their sample size in 2015 was 2,987; in…

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ICM finds the biggest backing yet for a referendum on the final deal

ICM finds the biggest backing yet for a referendum on the final deal

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Brexit: Britons favour second referendum by 16-point margin – new ICM poll https://t.co/Kvw8o8zI29 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018 ICM finds 47% saying they'd be in favour of new referendum once terms known – 34% against. Excluding don't knows that's a split of 58% to 42% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018 New ICM poll finds that 9% of LAB leave voters no say they'd vote remain in a 2nd referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 26, 2018…

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Reviewing 2017: The polling that made me think 53% of the electorate should be denied the vote

Reviewing 2017: The polling that made me think 53% of the electorate should be denied the vote

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The UK seems divided on the major issues. Reviewing the polling of 2017 I thought I’d focus on the polling that shocked me the most in 2017. Forget Mrs May’s collapsing ratings during the election campaign, a dash for the cliff that would have left lemmings panting for breath, it was the polling by YouGov in February that showed 53% of the public like pineapple on pizza. The polling was commissioned after ‘Guðni Th. Jóhannesson, the president of Iceland (the…

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Brexit-backing Sun & Mail seen as having the most negative impact on society – remain supporting Times & Guardian the most positive

Brexit-backing Sun & Mail seen as having the most negative impact on society – remain supporting Times & Guardian the most positive

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New YouGov poll ranks the main national papers I can’t recall any similar polling – looking at how the main national papers are perceived in terms of the impact they are having on society. At a time when the nation is so divided by Brexit it is striking that the papers that have been most strident in their backing of Brexit and opposition to those who oppose it should be seen in the negative way set out in these numbers….

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It is time to salute the brilliance of the visionary that is Diane Abbott

It is time to salute the brilliance of the visionary that is Diane Abbott

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Another reminder not to dismiss seemingly outlandish political predictions A year ago this weekend Diane Abbott made this prediction Labour will be level-pegging with the Conservatives within a year, Diane Abbott has said amid more woeful polling for Jeremy Corbyn’s party. Labour slumped to fourth place in the Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election this week, while the Conservatives enjoyed a 17-point lead over the official opposition in a YouGov survey on Friday. The Shadow Home Secretary suggested the party’s recent poor showing…

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It is now five months since “right to Leave” had lead in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

It is now five months since “right to Leave” had lead in YouGov’s Brexit tracker

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Could this swing back following today’s deal? Ever since the referendum PB has been monitoring the regular tracker that has been issued at regular intervals by YouGov. The wording is in the chart above which seeks to show the trend since Britain voted to leave. What I have done is to take the average monthly “right to leave” figure and deduct from it the average “wrong to leave” number. I am using monthly averages in order to illustrate the trend….

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In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

In late April the Tory data chief, Jim Messina, told senior Tories that his modelling pointed to a CON majority of 290

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Put this on your “Christmas” list I’m just back in the UK after my holiday on the West Coast of the US visiting my son, Robert, and his family who have moved to LA from London in July. Part of my holiday reading was Betting The House: The Inside Story of the 2017 Election by Tim Ross and Tom McTague which was published last month. It is an absorbing read giving a detailed account of GE2017 based on conversations with…

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Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

Survation Scotland poll offers great potential for Corbyn

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Picture: Latest Survation Scottish Westminster VI poll translated into seats Over the last day or so Survation have released their Scotland specific polling, and it presents get potential for Corbyn. Survation say If we input today’s published vote share figures into Baxter’s Scotland model, modelling today’s figures against the vote share the parties achieved at the General Election we can see the effect on seats at play. Although the SNP has essentially the same vote share in today’s polling as…

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