Have the betting markets got it about right? On the first working day of the year I thought it might be useful, as a point of reference to record the latest UK general election betting prices. These seem to suggest that punters believe that the Conservatives will be the top party but will be someway short of an overall majority. We last recorded the prices like this as a matter of record on June 27th 2007 – the day that…
Is anybody bold enough to call the Iowa caucuses? Leaving aside the probability of a very major shock then the next resident of the White House will be one of the seven contenders featured above. And for each next Thursday night could be crucial. For one or two victory in their party’s caucuses is absolutely central if they are to stay in the race. For others a convincing performance could be a knock-out blow to other challengers. But how can…
Tory lead down to 5% but nearly 60% say Gord is doing badly A new YouGov poll reported in the Sunday Times this morning has, with changes on the last survey by the pollster nearly a fortnight ago CON 40% (-3): LAB 35% (+4): LD 15% (-1). There’s very little other information in the paper except that “six out of 10 people believe the prime minister is doing badly”. We don’t know when the poll was carried out or any…
But why has the Indy been sitting on the survey for a week? What is almost certainly the final poll of 2007, ComRes for the Independent, is published this morning and the most surprising element is that the field-work took place during the weekend before last and so pre-dates the latest YouGov and ICM surveys. Quite why the paper has been holding on to this for so long is not clear but it does mean that the poll takes no…
Andy Cooke challenges the received wisdom One of the most widely held items of received wisdom is “The opinion polls always swing back towards the Government as the Election approaches”. That mid-term blues will always overemphasise an Opposition’s performance in the polls and these will wear off as the Parliament winds down towards the next election. Received wisdom can well be right – there is always a reason somewhere along the line that any given fact ends up as received…
Is there any way that Brown can turn this round? Reproduced above is the December YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph which took place from Monday to Wednesday when the Lib Dems were getting a lot of coverage over their leadership election. The chart shows comparisons with Daily Telegraph polls not the last published survey by the internet pollster which was in the Sunday Times five days ago. That produces the following changes CON 43% (-2): LAB 31% (-1): LD…
Did the controversial “named leader” question get it right all along? The above table is reproduced from UK Polling Report’s record of the controversial “named leader” questions that several pollsters asked during the period between David Cameron’s election as Tory leader in December 2005 and Gordon’s arrival in June 2007. These findings proved to be highly controversial and every time I featured them on the site they came under fierce attack. For what was being presented was dynamite. For on…
Should the LDs now work with the 45% Tories to fight Brown? On the day of the best Tory poll figures for 15 years and only two days before the Lib Dems get their new leader there’s an audacious move by Cameron which could prove problematic for Nick Clegg or Chris Huhne. For in an initiative calculated to put the new leader on the spot immediately Cameron has offered to join forces with the third party to forge a “new…