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Category: Polls

Super Tuesday – it looks like a cliff-hanger

Super Tuesday – it looks like a cliff-hanger

Obama almost catching up in the national polls The above polls, reproduced from Taegan Goddard’s Politicalwire show the latest polling figures from many of the states which will be having their primaries on the day. As can be seen the Clinton-Obama shares in many places are converging. It’s the same picture nationally where the latest Gallup tracking poll shows Clinton locked in a statistical tie with Obama, 46% to 44%. Given that yesterday’s Gallup tracker had Clinton 7% ahead then…

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It’s back to a smiling Gordon with Ipsos-Mori

It’s back to a smiling Gordon with Ipsos-Mori

Is Gord’s party really doing better than in 2005? The results of Ipsos-Mori January face to face survey of more than 2000 people are just out and give Labour a one point lead – a huge change on the last survey by the pollster just three weeks ago. Unlike this survey the earlier poll was by phone. These are the latest shares with comparisons on the earlier survey CON 37% (-5): LAB 38% (+6): LD 16% (+1). The fieldwork took…

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Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

Mayoral poll based on just 240 voters

How much can you trust a survey with such a small sample? The detailed data on YouGov’s London mayoral survey is out today and there are two things to highlight – the survey took place AFTER the controversial Channel 4 Dispatches programme last Monday but the size of the sample was just about the smallest that I can recall from the firm. In their normal national voting intention surveys YouGov generally involve about 2000 people. The figure for Saturday’s Daily…

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Who’ll come out of South Carolina on top?

Who’ll come out of South Carolina on top?

Will Obama get the breadth of support that he needs? With the polling stations in South Carolina due to close at 7pm ET (0000 GMT) there is not long to wait for the next chapter in the extraordinary drama of this year’s bitter contest for the Democratic nomination. For Obama tonight is pretty crucial. Not only does he need to carry the state with an emphatic margin he needs to show as well that his support is more broadly based…

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Will this sort of “push polling” happen in the UK?

Will this sort of “push polling” happen in the UK?

How an automated canvas is made to sound like a poll This week the excellent Pollster.com site in the US carried this video of what was purported to be a survey from a pollster but was probably what is known as “push polling”. This is defined by Wikipedia as “…a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large…

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Are the good times returning for Gordon?

Are the good times returning for Gordon?

Will today’s polls bring a smile back to his face? Following the good news for Labour in last night’s YouGov poll on the London mayoralty there’s a further boost for the party in new national voting intention surveys from YouGov and ICM this morning. And one of them has Labour’s deficit down to just two per cent. The latter finding is in the monthly ICM survey for the Guardian which has, with comparisons on the last poll from the firm…

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Boost for Ken in new YouGov poll

Boost for Ken in new YouGov poll

YouGov puts him 4% ahead After one of his most controversial weeks since becoming Mayor in 2000 there’s a boost tonight for Ken Livingstone in his bid to secure a third term in the most powerful directly elected office in the UK. A Yougov survey for ITV London found – with changes on its last poll a month ago – Ken 44% (-1): Boris 40% (-4): Paddick LD 8% (nc) The poll detail is not yet available so it’s hard…

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