New poll suggests that Cameron is heading for a 100 seat majority The above graphic, reproduced from the seat calculator on Anthony Wells’s UK Polling Report site, shows what happens when you key in the projected vote shares from today’s March YouGov survey for the Daily Telegraph. The survey paints the same broad picture that we’ve seen in all the post-budget polls – very bad news for Labour. When nearly a fortnight ago poll by the firm for the Sunday…
The latest Gallup daily tracker showing the trend in the race for the Democratic nomination, just out, has that the front-runner and odds-on favourite, Barack Obama, is back in the lead following a difficult week when the news had been dominated by Pastor Wright. This is important because the key battle in the coming days and weeks is going to be convincing the super-delegates that his relationship with his pastor does not make him an electoral liability. A big development…
The current odds-in favourites in the two most active betting markets are Obama for the Democratic nomination and Boris for the London mayoralty. The former is at 0.4/1 and the latter at 0.68/1. I think that the prices are the wrong way round and that Boris has a substantially better chance of making it than Obama does. Of course with Boris everything depends on how Londoners vote on May 1st while with Obama the majority of state battles have taken…
Why’s Boris winning the battle for LD second preferences? The above extract is from the detailed data on the YouGov website of this week’s London Mayoral poll showing Boris 12% ahead. What could be even more significant is the way the Brian Paddick second preferences are splitting:- Boris is winning 41% of them to Ken’s 34%. This is very much at odds with the way many on PBC have been seeing it and the assumption has been that Ken would…
The Tories get eight seats nearer a majority on the spreads Welcome again to the high-risk high-reward world of Commons seat spread betting where serious political gamblers trade the number of seats that the parties will get at the general election as though they were stocks and shares. When we last looked at this on March 7th the Tory spreads were 299-305 seats; Labour was at 269-275 and the Lib Dems at 47-50. so the Tories have moved up eight…
Do the findings mean that it’s now curtains for Ken? The odds on Boris Johnson becoming the next Mayor of London have tightened sharply following the publication of a new YouGov putting the Henley MP 12% ahead. The shares are with changes on the last survey a month ago JOHNSON 49% (+5): LIVINGSTONE 37% (-2) : PADDICK 12% (nc). On second preferences YouGov has picked up the same trend that MORI found last month with Boris getting 20% of them…
Why the poll slump when the budget measures were popular? A day on from the dramatic polling news in the Sunday newspapers there’s a must read article in the Independent today by John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, and one of the UK’s leading psephologists. In it he attempts to explain how the fact many of the measures in last week’s budget proved popular squares with Labour’s downward poll movement. One of the surveys, from YouGov had Labour…
The 16% Tory lead poll – the detail Reproduced above is an extract from the detailed data from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times showing the Tories with their best figures for a quarter of a century. The paper is leading on the survey this morning. By any account the figures are sensational and, if repeated at a general election, would see David Cameron returned with a three figure majority. But that could be more than two years away…