Is Obama now over the worst?

Is Obama now over the worst?


The latest Gallup daily tracker showing the trend in the race for the Democratic nomination, just out, has that the front-runner and odds-on favourite, Barack Obama, is back in the lead following a difficult week when the news had been dominated by Pastor Wright.

This is important because the key battle in the coming days and weeks is going to be convincing the super-delegates that his relationship with his pastor does not make him an electoral liability.

A big development of the week, though, has been the way his team has been able to oppose, without any public downsides, the plan to re-do the primaries in Michigan on Florida. The result is that without these states it is going to be even harder for Hillary Clinton to achieve a lead in the popular vote – which is being seen as being absolutely vital if the super-delegates are going to over-turn the wishes of the pledged delegates.

Meanwhile the influential Politico site has an article that sets the big picture in context. Under the headline “Clinton’s campaign rests increasingly on a game of make-believe” it notes that “One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning..Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.”

Nomination betting is here.

Mike Smithson

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