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If Brexit is ever to be reversed it’ll be down to the 13% who think Brexit will negatively impact the economy but not their personal finances

If Brexit is ever to be reversed it’ll be down to the 13% who think Brexit will negatively impact the economy but not their personal finances

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New ICM poll has Tories +3 on Labour (Con 43% Lab 40%) but don't worry about that look at this. Although 45% think Brexit will be bad for GB economy only 1 in 3 think it will negatively impact them personally. This is really important for Remain / soft Brexiters to grasp. pic.twitter.com/LfcdIQAtIn — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) May 30, 2018 I’ve been long of the opinion if Brexit is to be reversed it will be after a few years after…

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‘Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying—and younger, mainly Remain, voters are joining the electorate.’

‘Bluntly, older, mainly Leave, voters are dying—and younger, mainly Remain, voters are joining the electorate.’

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There’s some analysis by Peter Kellner on a second referendum. The UK would vote to remain in the EU if a second Brexit referendum were held, new polling analysis has suggested. Peter Kellner, former president of YouGov and polling analyst, suggested that up to one million Labour supporters who voted Leave in the 2016 referendum are having second thoughts. In an article for Prospect, he points out that YouGov has carried out 14 polls this year asking people if the UK was right or wrong to vote for Brexit….

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Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

Pro-Brexit anti-Lords poll splashed by the Mail comes under fire for “loaded” questions

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Leo Barasi of the PB/Polling Matters podcast sets out his reasons Leo Barasi, a regular with Keiran Pedley on the PB/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PBers and his is always worth listening to. He’s posted on his “Noise of the Crowd” blog observations about the ComRes poll that featured in yesterday’s Daily Mail. He writes: The fundamental problem is that the questions were nearly all one-sided agree/disagree questions, with each one loaded against the Lords and Remainers. A…

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The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

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What does this say about current national polling? It is not often we get a real election against which we can compare final polls and this month’s London elections provided one such opportunity. The LAB/CON/LD shares in the final polls from YouGov and Survation are shown in the chart and compared with the overall result. As can be seen both pollsters had LAB at 51% which compared the 47% that actually happened. Survation got the Tories spot on while YouGov…

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Be wary of YouGov’s finding that Britain’s voting intentions is classless

Be wary of YouGov’s finding that Britain’s voting intentions is classless

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Queues like I've never seen out the polling station in hackney pic.twitter.com/oDUBM7wBVj — Tom Clark (@prospect_clark) June 23, 2016 It isn’t new, and it isn’t really backed up by other pollsters or elections Class is supposed to define British politics. Perhaps that explains the flurry of surprise yesterday when YouGov’s latest poll gave the Conservatives a 3% lead among the C2DE group (43-40-7 among the main parties), and showed Labour doing worse with them than with the ABC1s (43-37-11). We…

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Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

Polling analysis: Corbyn is a liability to Labour while TMay has returned to being an asset to the Tories

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The YouGov favourability trackers are just about the only polling where we can compare leaders with their parties on the same basis. The same question is asked in exactly the same form to the same sample whether people have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of CON/LAB/TMay/Corbyn. It is also a tracker which is asked in the same form at regular intervals which means there are enough data points to examine trends. The movement in the leader and party ratings since…

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Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

Exactly a year ago this weekend ComRes had TMay’s Tories 25% ahead

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How things have changed since It is just a year since Theresa May made her fateful and what will be her career defining announcement about calling a general election to secure a bigger majority. On the weekend after the news we had the initial round of voting intention polls of the campaign and those are shown in the chart above. As can be seen the one that stands out is ComRes, which had been the most accurate pollster two years…

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Latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: Are you racist? Syrian airstrikes & the Lords report on polling

Latest PB/Polling Matters podcast: Are you racist? Syrian airstrikes & the Lords report on polling

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On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley is joined by Matt Singh (Number Cruncher) and Adam Drummond (Opinium) to discuss: 1) Why voting intention polls and perceptions of party leaders seem to be moving in different directions 2) Reactions to the Windrush scandal and how pollsters deal with sensitive questions around immigration 3) An exclusive survey from Opinium for PB that shows 1 in 10 Brits believe the Russian military accusation that Britain staged the Douma chemical attack in…

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