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Category: Polls

PoliticsHome predicting 20 point Tory leads

PoliticsHome predicting 20 point Tory leads

PoliticsHome Mixed news for ministers from the online survey The first post-budget poll is out from the non-BPC registered PoliticsHome which carried out an online survey starting yesterday afternoon. We know that voting intention questions were asked because PH breaks down its responses into party groupings but no numbers are being issued. The closest we get is a statement that “..PoliticsHome is able to predict that the Tories will enjoy a significant bounce overall, and will likely be returned to…

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Poll: Just 4% of Labour voters would back Harriet

Poll: Just 4% of Labour voters would back Harriet

Polling update The first full post-budget voting intention survey is not likely before Friday at the earliest – and I would expect it to be from YouGov in the Daily Telegraph. ComRes should be due at the weekend and we might also see one other survey. Meanwhile it’s now been confirmed that the Sunday Telegraph’s poll by the ICM group company Marketing Sciences was carried out in precisely the same manner as other ICM voting intention polls. The wording of…

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Is “TrueLabour” right to worry about UNITE?

Is “TrueLabour” right to worry about UNITE?

Does the union have too much influence over the party? Somebody calling themselves “TrueLabour” posted this on LabourHome yesterday:- “If the Conservative party had a single donor called UnitePLC that provided 40% of its donations, provided the CEO of the Conservative party, had its Head of PR setup websites for the Conservatives, hired people like Derek McPoison to run smear campaigns, unfairly influenced the process whereby many of its UnitePLC employees become Conservative MPs through donations and Uniteplc block votes…

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Will the Guardian’s ICM poll ease the Labour gloom?

Will the Guardian’s ICM poll ease the Labour gloom?

CON 40 (-3) LAB 30 (+4) LD 19 (-2) Brown’s party is back in the 30s After the two terrible polls at the weekend Labour strategists must have been fearing the worst from the Guardian’s ICM survey – the longest polling series in the UK. Well those projecting a big collapse got it wrong. The poll points to a Tory lead of just 10 points which is barely enough to produce an overall majority. This is seriously good news for…

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What’s all this going to do to the polls?

What’s all this going to do to the polls?

Is it just the political nerds who are interested? After such an intensive period of dramatic political developments I just wonder how this is going down amongst the voters at large. Are they really responding in the way that the Westminster village seems to be and, of course, posters on PB’s threads which are now running to record lengths? Or could it be that when the next polls come out over the weekend and early next week that we don’t…

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However did Brown become the heir apparent?

However did Brown become the heir apparent?

ICM Research May 1994 Did Blair concede too much at the Granita? We all know about the famous dinner at the Granita in Islington at the end of May 1994 which has shaped British politics ever since. For Brown came away from that meeting thinking that he had Blair’s backing as the heir apparent in exchange for not pursuing his own candidature. Yet just looking back at the polling of the period this seems crazy. Brown was simply not in…

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..and the PB Index moves just 2 seats

..and the PB Index moves just 2 seats

Sporting Index Spread Markets PB “The Money Says Index”: CON MAJ 55 (+2) However much excitement there has been over the past four days it’s perhaps worth reminding ourselves that “Smear-gate”, or whatever you want to call it, has failed to persuade the serious political punters who play the spread markets to pile onto the Tories or to sell Labour seats. The latest SPIN spreads shown above have just advanced one seat forward for the Tories with the Labour spread…

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Will the “2010 polling disaster” be blamed on the elderly?

Will the “2010 polling disaster” be blamed on the elderly?

The other day I was asked whether I thought that modern polling still had any weaknesses and what would we be saying about their final predictions in comparison with the outcome on the Friday after the next general election. Are there any segments of the electorate who have a markedly different political profile from the norm who might be being over or under-represented in current polling approaches? The obvious group is the over 55s for we know that older voters…

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