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Category: Polls

Is this bad news for the Tories?

Is this bad news for the Tories?

YouGov Only 39% of UKIP voters will switch for the general The above table, which I’ve just clipped from YouGov’s cross-tabs on this morning’s poll, is the first time I’ve seen any attempt to link Euro election voting intention to what polling respondents plan to the in the general election. The interesting column is the one I’ve highlighted – what’s going to happen to the UKIP vote once the battle is about who runs Westminster. Inevitably UKIP’s share will drop…

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Are the over 55 figures the best indicator?

Are the over 55 figures the best indicator?

YouGov Do oldies dominate when there’s a very low-turnout? I have to admit to being completely perplexed by the polling data that we are getting about next Thursday Euro election. What worries me is the turnout level which, if it is very low, will play havoc with all the polling projections. Pollsters have a big enough challenge in a general election when 60% actually vote – how are they going to perform if the percentage is near to the 24%…

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Is voter certainty UKIP’s secret weapon?

Is voter certainty UKIP’s secret weapon?

What chances of Farage’s party over-hauling Labour? There’s a buzz around the UKIP campaign HQ at the moment following a private ComRes poll which seems to suggest that they could do very well – perhaps, even, over-taking Labour for second place. I haven’t seen any figures but my understanding is that amongst those who are certain or near-certain to vote then UKIP’s share was in the 18 – 19% region. This was still some way behind the Labour share but…

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Big boost for the big three in ICM EU election poll

Big boost for the big three in ICM EU election poll

CON 30 (+4) LAB 24(+1) LD 18 (+3) UKIP 10(-6) GRN 9(3) SNP/PC 4(+2) BNP 1(-4) OTH 3(-3) Could turnout distort the pollsters’ projections? There’s a new Guardian ICM poll on the June 4th Euro elections out this afternoon which suggests that in spite of everything the main parities are all set for an increase of ten points between them compared with what happened in the last elections five years ago. This goes very much against other EU election polling…

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Why Hopi Sen is wrong about Labour being less popular Brown?

Why Hopi Sen is wrong about Labour being less popular Brown?

IpsoMORI July 2008 The data, surely, shows that the PM is a liability Earlier in the month the Labour blogger, Hopi Sen, was making the argument that the polls were showing Gordon Brown was more popular than his party and, therefore, any change of leader would have a negative rather than positive impact on Labour’s chances. Hopi based his case on the MORI monthly question when respondents rated their satisfaction with the government and their satisfaction with Brown. He argued…

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Tories lead by 12 points with Populus

Tories lead by 12 points with Populus

POLITICALBETTING EXCLUSIVE: CON 39 (nc) LAB 27(+1) LD 17 (-5) More than half those polled want an immediate general election I’ve been given to understand that a new poll by Populus for ITV news tonight with Westminster voting intentions will show the Tories remaining on 39% with Labour up one to 27% but with the Lib Dems taking the biggest hit – down five points to 17%. The comparisons are with the last survey from the firm ten days ago….

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Labour move up to 23% in new YouGov poll

Labour move up to 23% in new YouGov poll

CON 39 (-2) LAB 23(+1) LD 19 (nc) But are the BNP gaining in the Euros? There’s a new YouGov poll in the printed edition Daily Telegraph this morning which is not yet on their online pages which is why I missed it overnight. The figures will provide a welcome relief for Labour and might cause a touch of concern for the Tories who are below 40% for the first time since 2007 in a survey from the pollster. The…

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UKIP hit 15% in a non-YouGov June 4th poll

UKIP hit 15% in a non-YouGov June 4th poll

Could Labour, be beaten by the UKIP caravan? In the 2004 Euro election campaign in the UK and so far during the 2009 campaign all the big shares for UKIP have come from the online pollster, YouGov or BPIX for which it carries out the fieldwork. Five years ago the firm was first to pick up the ground-swell of opinion in favour of the anti-EU party although at the end of the pollster overstated their national share. So this morning’s…

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