CON 40 (+3) LAB 24(+2) LD 18 (-1) Half those polled say Brown is “damaging Britain” In its first full Westminster voting intention survey since the Euro elections the Sunday Times YouGov poll shows that the other parties are continuing to figure highly getting `18% of the choices of those in the sample. YouGov show that both the Tories and Labour are seeing increases in their vote shares – though Brown’s party is still in the low 20s. UKIP is…
It’s getting beyond the time when we normally gets news of any polls for the Sunday papers. I was expecting at least an ICM if only because JohnLoony, for the first time in his life, was interviewed by the firm earlier in the week. It might still come. The last ICM Westminster poll had Labour in third place behind the Lib Dems. Will that still be the situation whenever a poll comes out from the firm? My guess is probably…
Populus CON 36 (-5) LAB 24(+3) LD 19 (+4) Blow for Cameron in new Populus poll The latest Populus poll in the Times looks like a serious blow for the Tories following nine terrible days for Labour. The voting intention figures above are bad enough but one of the other findings could be very worrying. As the paper puts it “..faced by a straight choice, 44 per cent would still prefer a Labour government and 42 per cent a Conservative…
UPDATED Why Labour should ALWAYS assume the worst Before we get into the days big story about whether Brown can hang on let’s have a quick look at the pollsters which, once again, have shown that the Golden Polling Rule still operates. This, as we’ve discussed here before, is that in CON-LAB contests the survey showing Labour in the least favourable position is the most accurate one – something that has happened on every occasion when polls have been tested…
YouGov – June 3rd CON 26 LAB 16 LD 15 UKIP 18 GRN 10 BNP 5 ComRes – May 31st CON 24 LAB 22 LD 14 UKIP 17 GRN 15 BNP 2 ICM – May 28th CON 29 LAB 17 LD 20 UKIP 10 GRN 11 BNP 5 Populus – May 28th CON 30 LAB 16 LD 12 UKIP 19 GRN 10 BNP 5 BPIX – May 16th CON 30 LAB 17 LD 15 UKIP 17 GRN ?? BNP 5…
SportingIndex CON 360-365 LAB 203-208 LD 53-56 But the TV “experts” project a Tory majority of just 4 A big gap has opened up this afternoon between the punters – those who back up their general election predictions with hard cash – and the TV academics who have been analysing the local election results. So while SkyNews has been projecting, based on the handful of results in so far, a Conservative general election total 327 seats the Sporting Index spreads…
How’s this going to affect Thursday elections? With just one day’s campaigning left the big political story, once again, has nothing to do with Europe. We’ve got the cabinet re-shuffle coming up and the very messy way in which news of this is coming out. Latest word is that Brown will announce his changes on Monday – the day after the Euro results are known. Meanwhile the betting activity has been stepped up and there’s an interesting range of Euro…
UKPollingReport Does Brown’s future depend on beating expectations? Perhaps the most critical few hours in Gordon Brown political career will take place on Sunday evening when all the Euro results are coming in. For not only will we be able to find out the big picture but we should also get data, constituency by constituency, of how the parties did within the Westminster seat boundaries. It won’t take long before the news channels and pundits are extrapolating this into what…