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Category: Polls

Was the 2007 non-election because he needed to outshine Blair?

Was the 2007 non-election because he needed to outshine Blair?

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Did the shadow of Tony determine the historic decision? We are not far away from the second anniversary of what’s likely to go down as the defining decision of the Gordon Brown era – his cancelling in October 2007 of an early election. This is something that will be examined again and again in future years and still dominates our politics. For the polls during the Brown honeymoon had all been going Labour’s way and Brown apparently had a chance…

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What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?

What’ll Labour’s share be when the votes are counted?

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PaddyPower Is their value on this new market? Overnight, while doing the piece on Irish referendum, I checked the political markets of PaddyPower which I must admit I tend to overlook. This is a pity because they are building a good range of UK general election bets including the above one which I have not seen elsewhere. With the big trend at the moment being the erosion of Labour votes a market on the percentage vote share that they’ll end…

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Is Hillary’s campaign chief right about Brown’s chances?

Is Hillary’s campaign chief right about Brown’s chances?

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PR Week But has Brown got it within him to do what’s required? This week’s edition of PR Week has an interesting interview with one of the world’s most highly paid political strategists – Mark Penn, global CEO of Burson-Marsteller – in which he holds up some hope for Labour? He’s quoted as saying: “Voters can and do take a second and even third look at their leaders. Tory leader David Cameron has hit a barrier, and a lot of…

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Are these the figures that undermine the UNS?

Are these the figures that undermine the UNS?

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YouGov Just look at how Lib Dem supporters are splitting The forced choice question that appears above is one that’s been included in the Telegraph’s monthly YouGov poll for several years now and I think is probably a good guide to potential tactical voting. For this asks simply: “If you had to choose which would you prefer to see after the next election a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?”. For me…

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Labour move to best YouGov total since May

Labour move to best YouGov total since May

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CON 41 (+1) LAB 27 (+2) LD 18 (-2) But Labour is still down seven on early early April The third YouGov poll of the month, this one for the Daily Telegraph, has just been published and has some possible less bad news Brown Central. A slight increase in the Labour share which equals the 27 points they were on in late April and early May and is substantially higher than the 21% recorded in one YouGov survey in early…

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July 30 2005: When Dave was recognised by just 6% of voters

July 30 2005: When Dave was recognised by just 6% of voters

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Looking back at the Populus poll that’s four years old today Just four years ago today the Times published the findings of an online poll in which those participating were presented with a series of pictures featuring prominent politicians, asking who they were and what their job was. To put the political situation at the time into context the end July 2005 voting intention polls had:- YouGov CON 31: LAB 40: LD 21 Populus CON 28: LAB 40: LD 22…

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Who’s got the biggest Afghan problem – Dave or Gord?

Who’s got the biggest Afghan problem – Dave or Gord?

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What’s an incoming Tory government going to do? Two of what used to be called the broadsheet papers are once again making Afghanistan and the problems for the government their main lead. The Independent focuses on the findings of the first part of its monthly ComRes poll which has 52% wanting troops out straight away with 43% against. By 58% to 31% those sampled believed that the Taliban cannot be defeated militarily and by 60% to 35% of those polled…

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Quantifying the Labour collapse

Quantifying the Labour collapse

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YouGov How 732 who identified with the party became 435 The above panel is from the latest YouGov poll that was in The People yesterday and shows the dramatic differences between those who told the pollster in 2005 which party they identified with and who they now say they will vote for. So in the sample there were 732 “Labour identifiers” from May 2005. By late July 2009 that number has become 435 – or just 59%. At the same…

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