CON 31% (+9.6) LAB 34% (-8.7) LD 12% (-6.4) PC 15% (+2.4) The first Wales-only YouGov poll The much anticipated first YouGov voting intention poll of Welsh voters is just out and suggests that the Tories are going to make big gains in a part of the UK which used to be almost a blue-free zone. The comparisons above are with what actually happened in the Principality on May 5th 2005. Then Labour won 29 of the 40 seats with…
PoliticsHome MegaMarginals poll Oct 2009 What does the polling show? Ever since the PoliticsHome mega marginals survey came out at the start of October I’ve been planning to do specific threads on each of the seat segments that were included within the 33,000 sample survey. What’s prompted me to do something now is a comment on the previous thread Easterross in which he asserted that “Cornwall, Devon and Somerset will be ALMOST LibDem free zones come 10th May 2010.” He…
Can anybody spot the value bet? Over the weekend the ever resourceful Shadsy at Ladbrokes introduced his general election vote share handicap. Essentially there are three runners – the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems – and you have to work out who’ll come out top applying the handicaps as set out. So the Tories start at scratch, Labour at +15 percentage points of the GB vote share with the Lib Dems on +22 points. So if the result was…
A guest article from Peter Ould It’s commonly asserted that BNP voters are most likely to be disaffected Labour supporters. For example, Iain Dale on Saturday noted that the places that the BNP have done well are all strong Labour constituencies. Equally, some Labour commentators have blamed the rise of the BNP on the lack of an effective Conservative opposition. Which is it? To examine both these propositions I decided to look at some polling data. Taking the four polling…
Or is Brown’s party just clutching at straws? According to Gaby Hinsliff and Henry McDonald in the Observer this morning ” a private analysis by Labour strategists suggests that the blues could be denied up to 50 seats at the election because of UKIP supporters splitting the Tory vote. The figures in Labour’s study, if that’s not too grand a term, “..are based on 100 “supermarginal” seats where its MPs are holding on with majorities of less than 2,000.” Certainly…
ConservativeHome ..Or are site readers just echoing back Tim’s views? One of the big political stories of the week which could have an electoral impact was David Cameron’s comments about all women short-lists. The reaction on a number of Tory-blogs, particularly from Tim Montgomerie’s ConservativeHome has been electric. There’s been post afer post about the subject and with many commenters being hostile as well. Yesterday we had one of ConHome’s “polls” with the summary results appearing above. This has been…
CON 40%(-1) LAB 27%(-3) LD 19%(+2) Will this add to Labour disappointments? What a difference a week makes? Just six days ago Labour might have just felt that things were turning for them. They’d been down only ten points in the October Populus poll and then there was further goodish news in the two surveys that came out on Saturday evening. YouGov had them on the psychological 30% mark while ComRes had them only 12 behind with the Tories on…
Norwich north by election poster Is this what all the publicity has produced? According to a twitter from the Standard’s Paul Waugh a new YouGov poll for the Telegraph tonight will show a boost for the BNP. The last survey from the firm put the party’s share at just two points. Tonight’s poll is due out at 10pm. I’m off out and won’t be back until late. Mike Smithson