How can we explain both MORI and ICM? One thing you must not do, when you see a shock polling outcome such as the survey for by MORI for the Observer this morning, is immediately to conclude that it must be a rogue or an outlier. The fact is that we don’t know. You can only label a poll like that with the benefit of hindsight and it might be that when we see further surveys that the poll carried…
CON 37% (-6) LAB 31% (+5) LD 17% (-2) OTHERS 15% The delayed survey has the Tory lead down to just 6pts There are reports about that a poll due out tonight is “very good for Labour“. We haven’t seen any numbers yet and this post will be updated when we get some. Which pollster it is I don’t know but the November Ipsos-MORI poll is long overdue. The field-work began a week last Friday in the immediate aftermath of…
UKPollingReport “Government’s always recover” – eh? There is a notion which seems to be deeply ingrained in the minds of many pundits and Labour figures that there is some immutable law of polling that says that Governments always recover by election day. This is summed up by the following from Martin Bright in the Spectator tomorrow:- He notes that in Downing Street “…a rather desperate numbers game is being played. It starts with an assumption that the Labour vote has…
Are the LDs most vulnerable? There is a widespread assumption that the party most likely to suffer if the Greens increase their general election vote share will be the Lib Dems. The latest ComRes poll had them on a chunky 6%. On the face of it they seem to be targeting the same groups but is it actually the case that Nick Clegg’s party has most to fear? This is the second part of some analysis I’ve been doing on…
CON 42%(42) LAB 29%(25) LD 19%(21) OTHERS 10% (12) [LAB/CON 69% (59.5)] But they are still in the 20s with the Tories in the 40s The latest survey in the longest standing polling series in the UK – ICM in the Guardian – has some good news for Mr. Brown following Labour’s by election success in Glasgow last Thursday. Although the Tories are on a standstill at 42 Labour sees a sharp move upwards of four points. My guess is…
How less than one in five are ex-Tory voters This is the first part of some analysis I’ve been doing on the rise of “others” – UKIP, the BNP and the Greens – and the impact that they might have at the next general election. A big question to start with is where is UKIP support coming from? What can we find out from the polling data? The following numbers are based on the aggregation of all the relevant data…
Is this a polite way of saying “I’m not voting”? Another poll this morning, the ComRes one for the Indy on Sunday, has a huge 19 percent share for “others” including 6 percent for the Greens. This is out of line with other firms but follows a 5 percent share in the ComRes poll at the end of October and, as we might recall, what proved to be a wildly optimistic 15 percent in the firm’s final survey ahead of…
CON 39%(40) LAB 25%(27) LD 17%(18) OTHERS 19% (15) [LAB/CON 64.1% (67.5)] Another week goes by and two more polls come out which will add to the discomfort at Number 10. The first from Comres is above has the Tories slipping a point to below 40, Labour slipping two points to 25 with “others” seeing a massive boost to 19% – which is the biggest proportion in any survey since the EU election effect had worked its way out of…