Brighton Pavilion Poll: CON 27% (+4) LAB 25% (-13) LD 11% (-5) GRN 35% (+14) Is it about who is best placed to impede the Tories? I’ve now got the full dataset from the ICM poll of the Brighton Pavillion constituency which suggests that the party could win its first ever Westminster MP at the general election – the headline figures, with comparisons on the 2005 general election in the seat. But it’s the detail of the poll that could…
Iain Dale’s end of year elections:- Pollster of the Year 1. YouGov 2. Angus Reid 3. ICM How could they support an untested firm? I’m sure that my friends at PB’s pollster, Angus Reid, won’t be too upset to learn that I did not vote for them as “pollster of the year” in Iain Dale’s annual elections. The Vancouver-based firm only started publishing UK voting intention surveys in October and clearly have yet to go through the process of having…
Angus Reid There were some interesting non-voting question in the PB/Angus Reid pre-Christmas poll which have just been published – one of which is featured above. Interestingly men respondents placed Iraq at number one while the women in the survey went for the July 2005 London bombings. It’s a good question and I wonder what PBers would have answered? I’ve got little doubt and that was the Labour government’s Tony’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003 alongside the Americans. Mike…
Latest Ipsos-MORI issues index Is Sunny Hundal misreading the data? There’s a fascinating debate going on amongst Labour/left bloggers over whether the party’s apparent “class war” strategy is the right way to go. The Scottish Labour MP, Tom Harris, is very much against arguing that “.the only strategy Labour should even consider is one which aims to see us re-elected with a working overall majority in the Commons. Setting our sights anywhere lower than that would be a betrayal of…
Why I’m still not betting on the general election outcome? Another morning and the speculation over Brown’s leadership continues in the papers. So how will those “leading cabinet ministers” who are said to want Brown out view this polling data? For after yesterday morning’s examination of the long-term leader approval rating trends today I’m looking further at the Ipsos-MORI leader approval data but from another angle – what those who told the pollster they are voting Labour think of Mr….
Isn’t it all about how the questions are framed? The above clip always makes me chuckle and although it’s from a comedy show and is perhaps a bit over the top it’s a useful reminder about the hazards of non-standard polling questions. So what are we too make of the poll findings from the ComRes survey that the Indy is leading on this morning. The first non-voting related question asked whether respondees agreed that “A Conservative Government would mainly represent…
CON 38% (41) LAB 29% (24) LD 19% (21) OTHERS 14% (14) It’s now Labour up five from Comres in just nine days In keeping with the wise words on MORI founder, Sir Bob Worcester, I’m going to try not to report polls in terms of the lead – focussing on the party shares instead. As Bob says with the lead you have double the margin of error. So after the last ComRes poll which was published nine days ago…
Newspaper front pages December 10 Is the Bob Worcester analysis on the nail? Sir Robert Worcester, founder of MORI, posted this on the overnight thread. “What’s going on, the polls seem all over the place? One says a lead of 6 and another a lead of 17. †I’ve been hearing that for many a year. So what is going on? Part of the answer is ‘events, dear boy, events†And the Pre-Budget Review (PRB) was not just an event…