Why I’m still not betting on the general election outcome?
Another morning and the speculation over Brown’s leadership continues in the papers. So how will those “leading cabinet ministers” who are said to want Brown out view this polling data?
For after yesterday morning’s examination of the long-term leader approval rating trends today I’m looking further at the Ipsos-MORI leader approval data but from another angle – what those who told the pollster they are voting Labour think of Mr. Brown. And as can be seen from the chart the numbers are not good for Brown Central.
For just over one in two of the Labour voters in the survey said they were satisfied with Mr. Brown – and more than a third said they were dissatisfied.
That is hardly the base to mount a general election campaign and suggests that with Mr. Brown still in post it’s going to be quite a challenge to motivate even the core vote.
Just contrast that with how declared Conservative supporters rate their leader, Mr. Cameron.
My strong view is that any change of Labour leader will have a beneficial impact on the party’s performance and it is for this reason that I am still not predicting a general election outcome or making long term bets on the spread markets. Brown going could dramatically change the whole environment.
For even more worrying for Labour is that the detailed data shows that 33% of declared Labour supporters say they are “satisfied” with Cameron’s performance.
You can get a bet at 5/1 with Ladbrokes that Brown will not lead Labour at the general election. Yesterday morning it was 8/1.
I think those odds are about right.