CON 40 % (40) LAB 29 % (30) LD 21 %(18) And Clegg’s Lib Dems go up 3 to 21 The Guardian’s ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories constant with Labour down a point and the Lib Dems up three. The changes are against the last published survey from the pollster just over a week ago and come after a period of sustained pressure from Labour on the Tory marriage plans. On that specific issue…
Poll of 97 LAB-held marginals CON 40% (+9.2) LAB 37% (-7.4) LD 14%(-3.8) Standard GB poll: CON 38% (-4) LAB 29% (nc) LD 19%(nc) Or is national voting intention that gives the best picture? Two very different polls tonight both suggesting quite different outcomes to the general election – one will cheer up Labour supporters and the other will provide a boost for the Tories. The comparisons in the former are with what happened in the 97 seats at the…
Final Polls 1987/92/97/01/05: Polls overstating Labour: 29 Polls getting it right: 1 Polls understating Labour: 1 Have we still got to factor in Labour over-statement? There was a constant reminder from many of the speakers at this week’s conference on general election polling that in only one of the 31 final polls in the five general elections since 1987 has Labour been understated. The exception was ICM in 1997 when even with this it still ended up as top pollster….
Full datasets to be published within 18 hours The president of the British Polling Council, Professor John Curtice, told a conference of academics, pollsters and journalists today that the rules on the publication by pollsters of the full datasets from surveys are to be changed for the general election. The rule that has existed since the BPC was set up in 2004 was that pollsters had two clear working days to make the dataset available. So if the poll came…
YouGov How will it split as the share for “others” gets smaller? Following Tuesday’s thread on the decline in poll shares for the other parties a key question is who will benefit the most? For working out where these votes will go could be the key element in predicting what is going to happen on the day and whether Labour will be able to stop Cameron’s Tories from forming a majority government. A problem is that there’s so little polling…
Do the latest polls show it’s the end of the “others”? The dominating feature of the polls since last June’s Euro elections was that “others” – mainly GRN/BNP/UKIP – looked set to take a significant shares. These three parties together with PC/SNP in Wales and Scotland secured about 8% of GB vote in 2005. In some polls in the past few months this has touched 18% and a big question has been whether the Tories or Labour are being hit…
Guardian Might the Labour bias corrections have gone too far? The Guardian’s polling expert, Julian Glover, raises an interesting question this morning – could all the measures that have been made in recent years to correct the systemic pro-Labour polling bias have gone too far? And if that’s the case then could this offer a glimmer of hope for Brown’s party as it sees the Tories staying in the 40s looking on course for victory? For unlike any previous election…
Should we be waiting for the MORI January numbers? So in the past week we have had two telephone polls, Populus and ComRes, showing sharpish moves to the Tories while the two online polls have either reported no change (Angus Reid) or Labour moving up a notch and the Tories moving down (YouGov). Given that one, last night’s YouGov had the gap close to, as they say, “hung parliament territory” what is going on and could the election, after all,…