UKPR I know a lot of people are getting a bit frustrated as they wait for the next poll. Hopefully something will come along quite soon. In the meantime I’ve reproduced all the polls for 2010 so far. Tomorrow Andy Morris, research director at Angus Reid, will be taking online questions. This will start after lunch. Mike Smithson
Wikimedia Can we identify what’s driving the votes? Over the past week or so we’ve been putting a lot of focus on the marginals – the seats where the fates of Mr. Brown and Mr. Cameron will be decided. For there has been a fair bit of polling evidence, still far from conclusive, that there have been sharper moves to the Tories in these places than in the country as a whole. A key part of the Andy Cooke thesis,…
CON 40% (38) LAB 29% (31) LD 21% (19) Tory lead up four with ComRes The poll is being published in tomorrow’s Indy on Sunday and the numbers should provide a lot of relief at Cameron Towers and something of a boost to the Lib Dems. For after a period when most pollsters had both Labour and the Tories in the 30s we now revert back to what was almost the status quo – Labour in the 20s with Cameron’s…
CON 38% (40) LAB 25% (24) LD 20% (19) And will “others” will be squeezed by polling day? There’s a new exclusive PB/Angus Reid poll just out where the fieldwork started on Tuesday and finished only last night. The shares are above and show the Tories down a touch with Labour at its highest ever recorded level with the online pollster. This is the first full national survey to have been carried out since the three Labour MPs and a…
The 2005 final polls: C33% L38% LD23% – MORI C33% L38% LD22% – HARRIS C32% L37% LD25% – YouGov C32% L38% LD22% – ICM C32% L38% LD21% – Populus C33% L36% LD23% – NOP C33% L37% LD21% – BPIX C31% L39% LD23% – COMRES The 2005 result: C33.2% L36.2% LD22.7% Would this factor in likely Labour polling over-statement? In the past week while we’ve been putting the focus on what lead would produce a majority couple of PBers have emailed…
PoliticsHome Is a referendum promise really going to help them? The above is one of the findings from a PoliticsHome poll on Labour’s plan to legislate for a post general election referendum on the alternative vote system. Although I’m not totally convinced about the wording of the poll questions I think we can draw something from the findings – voters are highly cynical of such a move thirteen years after it first appeared as a Labour manifesto commitment. The damning…
Are all parties underestimating the opposing leaders? James Forsyth had a post on the Spectator CoffeeHouse blog last night setting out a view that’s often expressed on PB threads:- “We just need to ram Gordon Brown down the electorate’s throat’ one Tory staffer said to me today when talking about how the party could get back on the front foot.” The unspoken thought was that the prospect of five more years of Gordon Brown would be enough to send voters…
The map that changed my view of the election I’ve shown this before but it’s worth running again as we try focus on why things might be different in the marginals. For combined with the Andy Cooke analysis and the marginals polling, including last week’s aggregated MORI data, a clearer picture is emerging of the dynamics of the coming election and a better sense of the outcome. The map first appeared here in September 2007 in a guest slot by…