Harris poll for The Metro Mar 9 Feb 22 CONSERVATIVES 37% 39% LABOUR 29% 30% LIB DEMS 18% 22% LAB to CON swing from 2005 5.5% 6% And “others” soar in another online poll As the polling deluge continues there’s another survey out this evening from Harris Interactive for the Metro. The figures are above with the big move, surely, being a huge increase in the numbers saying that they will vote for one of the other parties – mostly…
Notice how others are large – like Angus Reid The new kid on the polling block, Opinium, has published its historic polls and it is interesting to track how it compares with everybody else. The striking feature for me is that it consistently has a high share for others – very much in line with the PB/Angus Reid polls. Maybe it’s something about online polling? A disappointment is that it makes no attempt to politically weight its samples. This probably…
Populus marginals poll (Times) F/W Mar 7 2005 CONSERVATIVES 38% 31.5 LABOUR 38% 45.3 LIB DEMS ??% ?? LAB to CON swing 6.7% — Is a hung parliament now looking more likely? We’ve now got details of the Times Populus poll for March which is not a national voting intention survey but one that is focussed entirely on Tory’s targets from Labour numbers 51 – 150. It’s assumed that the first 50 will go anyway. There’s no data in the…
Will tonight’s poll be in ICM or YouGov territory? After a weekend which has seen two very different views from the pollsters we are due the March Populus survey for the Times this evening. The big question is whether it will have figures in the YouGov family territory (down to 2% with YouGov/BPIX) or that of ICM with its Tory 40% share and 9% lead? It’s hard to say – at the start of February the firm had 40-30-20. Mike…
CON 40% (37) LAB 31% (30) LD 18% (20) LAB>CON swing on 2005: 6% Has the move to Labour run out of steam? A new ICM poll for the News of the World goes very much against the trend of the past few weeks and has the Tories increasing their lead over Labour to the psychologically key level of 40%. The comparisons are with the last ICM in the Guardian nearly a fortnight ago. There’s little doubt that this will…
British Election Study But could Labour activists now be more motivated? In the next few weeks we’ll be seeing a lot of data about difference aspects of the campaign from the British Election Study – a big academic programme involving a number of universities and quite a lot of polling. In this posting Professor Paul Whiteley writes: “The survey shows that about a quarter of the electorate have been contacted since July 2009, and the chart shows the percentages contacted…
CON 39% (33.2) LAB 31% (36.2) LD 19% (22.7) LAB>CON swing on 2005: 5.7% Yet another pollster enters the fray There’s a new voting intention survey out tonight from the Edinburgh-firm, TNS-BMRB, which has just started doing general election polls for the whole of Britain. The firm is well-established in Scotland and does regular political surveys north of the border. Apparently they had a poll out last week with a four point lead which I missed when I was on…
What do we think of the Anthony Wells explanation? YouGov staffer and operator of UKPollingReport, Anthony Wells, has put up a long post seeking to answer some of the points about the firm’s weightings that have appeared here in recent days. The essence of his article is that there have been adjustments to deal with the new way it is doing the daily poll which do not involve members of its panel being asked to take part in a specific…