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Whilst the Tories plough on totally divided over Brexit LAB has its worst polling month since GE2017

Whilst the Tories plough on totally divided over Brexit LAB has its worst polling month since GE2017

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If ever there was a period when LAB should be making headways in the polls then surely it has to be at the moment well that always continue to be divided on brexit. The latest David Cowling table above showing the monthly polling averages for each party has LAB at 35%, the worst since the general election. February was also only the second time since then that Corbyn’s party has failed to have at least one polling lead. Generally all…

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At GE2017 CON voters were SIX TIMES more likely to say Brexit was the key factor in deciding votes than LAB ones

At GE2017 CON voters were SIX TIMES more likely to say Brexit was the key factor in deciding votes than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft polls Why Brexit is much less of an issue for the red team On General Election day in June 2017 the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a large sample poll to try to find out why voters had decided in the way they had. A key question was asking what was the main factor in determining the votes and the outcomes for each main group of parties are featured in the chart above. As can be seen…

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Those claiming that the “will of the people” equates to no deal should be treated like snake oil salesmen

Those claiming that the “will of the people” equates to no deal should be treated like snake oil salesmen

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July 2016 ComRes polling that had 42% of Leave voters prioritising staying in the single market. Any politician trying to assert that what they propose, as we enter the final month of Article 50 process, is the “will of the people” should be treated like a snake oil salesman. It is now nearly three years since the referendum and things have moved on in all sorts of ways particularly in understanding what a possible deal would look like. So I’d…

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If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were in the days before GE2017 – and we know what happened then

If it’s any consolation to LAB – the last CON 10%+ leads were in the days before GE2017 – and we know what happened then

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The overnight YouGov poll giving the Conservatives an 11% lead was the worst for LAB since the 2017 general election. I like to look at polls in context which is why above there there is the full Wikipedia list of all GB voting intention polls this year. The big picture is that LAB is on the decline and the Tories are moving up a bit. Although you’ve got a range of Conservative leads between 4% and 11% surveys it’s the…

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New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

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LAB 32-5 CON 40+3 TIG 6 LD 5-3 UKIP 7= The first of what could number of polls tonight is from Opinium for the Observer and sees the Tories take an 8% lead up from level-pegging a week ago. That’s quite a movement. Clearly the week has seen another political story dominate the headlines that is not Brexit and much of the focus of the new Independent Group has been critical of LAB and particularly its leader. Corbyn looks less…

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TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

TMay’s problem with the Tory polling resurgence is that it takes the edge off threats of PM Corbyn

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The most likely outcome from our new MRP constituency model see the Tories gaining just four seats in a snap election: not nearly enough to solve May’s Brexit woesCon: 321 seats (+4 from GE2017)Lab: 250 (-12)SNP: 39 (+4)LD: 16 (+4)Other – 7 (+1)https://t.co/PPl3yGL2Kq pic.twitter.com/vL2fSHyBtz — YouGov (@YouGov) February 11, 2019 REVISED. New Kantar poll sees movement broadly in line with last week's @OpiniumResearch 7% CON lead surveyCON 40%+5LAB 35%-3LD 10%+1UKIP 3%-3Carried out 7-11 Feb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 12,…

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Bad news for Theresa May as ORB brings horrible polling for her

Bad news for Theresa May as ORB brings horrible polling for her

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This month’s Brexit Confidence tracker poll shows 80% of UK adults disapprove of the way the government is handling the Brexit negotiations, the highest figure recorded since this tracker poll began in November 2016https://t.co/k55Qbr2hff#Brexit #Poll #TheresaMay #BrexitDeal pic.twitter.com/uYyjcPWD3J — ORB International (@ORB_Int) February 5, 2019 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way in which the Government is handling the Brexit negotiations? Approve 20% (-5) Disapprove 80% (+5) n=2014, 1st-3rd Feb Online — ORB International (@ORB_Int) February 5, 2019…

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TMay’s problem is that the vast majority of voters, including leavers, are not happy bunnies about Brexit

TMay’s problem is that the vast majority of voters, including leavers, are not happy bunnies about Brexit

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Are tonight’s votes going to improve or worsen this? Looking at this latest YouGov polling it really is quite remarkable how people feel about brexit. I suppose a lot of it is just simply exhaustion with each days news being totally dominated by the issue, something that has been going on for years it seems. The breakdown above is not surprising for remainers though I’d have expected a more positive view from leavers. This has become so complex that a…

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