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Category: Polls

Is Kellner right – Labour should be polling better?

Is Kellner right – Labour should be polling better?

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Should the lead be 10 percent plus? The president of YouGov and well-known Labour supporter, Peter Kellner, has put the cat amongst the pigeons with an article this afternoon saying that his party should be doing substantially better in the polls. He points to the current 32% – 54% gap in YouGov’s government approve/disapprove numbers and suggests that current conditions are ones “in which the main opposition party should be miles ahead, not a measly five points. ” This is…

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Should the blues be worried about Dave’s ratings’ collapse?

Should the blues be worried about Dave’s ratings’ collapse?

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Ipsos-MORI.com Was January a blip – or the continuation of a trend? As PB regulars know I take a lot of notice leadership approval ratings particuarly those from MORI which has been asking the same questions for more than thirty years. Also, taking the lead from several leading academic political scientists who track this, my main focus is on the “satisfaction” figure and I’m less concerned about the negatives. In terms of predicting electoral outcomes it’s the proportion saying they…

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Do the blues need to do more to de-toxify the brand?

Do the blues need to do more to de-toxify the brand?

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Ipsos-MORI What do we think of the MORI leader/party “like/dislike” numbers? One of Ipsos-MORI’s “hardy annuals” is this series of questions contrasting the like/dislike of the three main party leaders with voters views of their parties. This is the first time since the general election and formation of the coalition government that these questions have been put and the summary of responses is featured above. In terms of likeability Cameron comes out top with Clegg in second place and Miliband…

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YES still ahead in AV polls that ask the actual question

YES still ahead in AV polls that ask the actual question

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Latest AV referendum polls Date YES % NO % Question wording Angus Reid 25/01/11 35 (-2) 21 (+1) Actual wording on the ballot YouGov/Sun 25/01/11 32 (nc) 41 (nc) Bespoke wording – referring to the fact that this is a proposal from the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition ComRes/Indy on Sunday 14/01/11 36 30 Actual wording on the ballot ICM/Guardian 19/12/10 44 38 Actual wording on the ballot How close a battle is it going to be? With YouGov’s latest daily poll…

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The coalition starts to lose ground in the “cuts blame game”?

The coalition starts to lose ground in the “cuts blame game”?

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Which is most to blame for the cuts? (YouGov) CON-LD coalition Last Labour government Both of them Neither 25/01/11 26 40 24 5 10/01/11 22 40 25 8 11/12/10 23 41 24 7 15/11/10 22 43 23 7 07/10/10 17 47 20 10 20/09/10 21 44 22 7 06/09/10 22 45 20 6 31/08/10 23 45 20 6 16/08/10 22 45 21 6 02/08/10 22 45 20 6 19/07/10 21 48 19 7 05/07/10 21 44 21 8 23/06/10 18…

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The Lib Dems move to 15 percent with ICM

The Lib Dems move to 15 percent with ICM

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Poll/publication End date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%) ICM Guardian 23/01/11 35 39 15 ICM Guardian 19/12/10 37 39 13 ICM Guardian 21/11/10 36 38 14 ICM/Guardian 24/10/10 39 36 16 ICM/NOTW 22/10/10 40 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 07/10/10 38 34 18 ICM/Guardian 29/09/10 35 37 18 ICM/Guardian 15/08/10 37 37 18 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 ICM/Guardian 23/05/10 39 32 21 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 13/05/10 38 33 21…

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Nick Sparrow’s first PB polling column

Nick Sparrow’s first PB polling column

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The LibDem Collapse, Fact or Fiction The latest polls indicate that if another general election were to be held tomorrow Labour would sweep back to power with a majority (assuming uniform swing) of 46 over all other parties. The Conservatives would lose 45 seats, despite maintaining their 2010 share of the vote. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile would lose 41 of their 57 MPs, leaving them representing a paltry 16 Constituencies. In 7 short months since the 2010 election, 6 in…

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It it wrong to assume that all Tory losses went to the LDs?

It it wrong to assume that all Tory losses went to the LDs?

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Populus cross party splits CON 2010 % LAB 2010 % LD 2010 % CON by-election 46 2 3 LAB by-election 12 89 31 LD by-election 34 3 55 Or was the party churn more complicated than that? In the aftermath of the OES result a widespread assumption has developed that all the Tory votes lost last night went to the Lib Dems. This looks a simple straightforward answer and apparently explains everything. But does it? For the Populus poll of…

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