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Category: Polls

No GDP boost yet for the Tories. LAB has double digit leads in all the latest polls

No GDP boost yet for the Tories. LAB has double digit leads in all the latest polls

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Just a third now blame Labour for the cuts Maybe it’s all too early but in the wake of last week’s news that Britain was out of recession and that the GDP was on the up again there were many who thought that the Tories would get a poll bost. Maybe that will happen but from three surveys from three totally separate pollsters using very different methodologies the signs are that Labour is enjoying a substantial lead. The latest phone…

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The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

The change in public opinion that the blues should most fear: The return of the “Toxic Tories”

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The rise of Tory toxicity? Ipsos-MORI data from 2007-2012 showing like and dislike of the Conservative party. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 28, 2012 Over the last couple of days there’s been a lot of focus on the Ipsos-MORI finding that more people now dislike David Cameron than like him. The same polling also produced findings on like and dislike of the Conservative party itself which were, perhaps, more worrying for the party. The chart above based on Ipsos-MORI…

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With just 10 days of campaigning left for Mitt Romney punters seem to think that he’s a loser

With just 10 days of campaigning left for Mitt Romney punters seem to think that he’s a loser

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The betting sentiment continues to move against Mitt Romney. See pic for how his Betfair price has changed. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Meanwhile the ad onslaught in the swing states continues In past month there have been 58,235 political TV ads in Ohio. To watch them all continuously would take 80 days.is.gd/jv1DW5 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 26, 2012 Latest swing state polls Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 45% (OnSight Public Affairs) Florida: Romney 51%, Obama 46%…

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The polls and the early voting suggest that Ohio is moving away from Mitt Romney

The polls and the early voting suggest that Ohio is moving away from Mitt Romney

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Little by little Ohio edges slowly away from Mitt Romney. See latest Real Clear Politics chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2012 And on Betfair the Obama price moves to a 1/2 Real Clear Politics , which has been a leader in poll averaging in the US is quite selective about the polls that go into its calculation. It includes those where the field-work is carried out by robo-calling but does not take into account online surveys. Be…

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Ashcroft poll shows Labour heading for big victory in Louise Mensch’s old seat

Ashcroft poll shows Labour heading for big victory in Louise Mensch’s old seat

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Pie chart show how vote splits in Aschroft’s Corby by-election poll. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Just 48% of the Corby voters who supported Louise Mensch in 2010 tell Ashcroft’s poll that they’ll vote CON in by-election. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Surprisingly given national polls only 5% of 2010 CON voters in Corby say they’ll be voting UKIP. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 23, 2012 Just 2 out of 1,503 sample tell Ashcroft’s Corby…

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The battle-grounds with just a fortnight to go

The battle-grounds with just a fortnight to go

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Ohio (18 electoral college votes)   Virginia (13 electoral college votes)   Florida (29 electoral college votes)   Iowa (6 electoral college votes)   Will tonight’s final debate change the direction? This is so so close and I now finding I’m checking the early voting data (good link here) several times as day to see if there’s any discernible movement. My current betting position is that I’m now back on Romney but am “all in the green” at Betfair which…

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From a seven point Romney lead to a six point Obama one….

From a seven point Romney lead to a six point Obama one….

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That is tonight’s range of national White House polls Gallup: Romney 52%, Obama 45% IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, Romney 42% NBC News/Wall Street Journal: Obama 47%, Romney 47% Public Policy Polling: Obama 48%, Romney 48% Rasmussen: Romney 49%, Obama 47% And tomorrow night there’s the third and final debate. The stakes couldn’t be any higher. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news from the US and UK Follow @MSmithsonPB

Making sense of the Gallup 7 percent Romney lead

Making sense of the Gallup 7 percent Romney lead

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Gallup used to be the Gold Standard. No more. They need to get busy & solve their problems. — Larry Sabato (@LarrySabato) October 19, 2012 Top GOP pollster on Gallup’s 7-pt Romneylead nationally among likely voters: “There is nothing I am looking at that resembles that data.” — John Harwood (@JohnJHarwood) October 18, 2012 Simply put, if Romney were up 7, he’d be advertising in PA, MI, OR, CT and wouldn’t spend a dime in FL. — Sean Trende (@SeanTrende)…

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