The polls and the early voting suggest that Ohio is moving away from Mitt Romney
Little by little Ohio edges slowly away from Mitt Romney. See latest Real Clear Politics chart. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st…
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2012
And on Betfair the Obama price moves to a 1/2
Real Clear Politics , which has been a leader in poll averaging in the US is quite selective about the polls that go into its calculation. It includes those where the field-work is carried out by robo-calling but does not take into account online surveys.
Be that as it may the average for Ohio, the state many believe will decide the election, has been moving away from Mitt Romney following the uplife he got in the first debate when he edged to within 0.8%.
Since then we have had a waft of early voting data and polling which point to 812,227 votes already being cast in this manner representing 14.1% of the overall total of all votes in 2008.
Every single poll that has reported on how the early voting is splitting in the state has had Obama ahead by reasonable margins.
I’ve now switched my betting to the President.
UPDATE – New MORI poll had dreadful news for Clegg & LDs
Nick Clegg’s leader ratings with Ipsos-MORI drop to record low not just for him but for any Lib Dem leader. Now a net minus 45%
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2012
CORRECTION: Ipsos-MORI phone poll has CON 33%+3/LAB 43%+2/LD 9%-4
— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 25, 2012
Mike Smithson
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