Wikipedia list of latest polling with the latest, from ICM, showing LAB the closest pic.twitter.com/sDwy6TZAxQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019 Tory seats up 4 on last night on the @sportingindex Commons seats spread markethttps://t.co/rSKroIPwt1 pic.twitter.com/TMKBAPq9Tp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 10, 2019
Westminster voting intention… if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019": LAB: 27%CON: 26%BREX: 20%LDEM: 18%GRN: 4% via @ComRes, 16 – 17 Oct — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 24, 2019 Our latest #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the Sunday @Telegraph CON 43% (+2)LAB 33% (-1)LD 13% (-)BRX 4% (-1)Other 7% (-) 27th – 28th Nov (changes from Savanta ComRes/Telegraph, Nov 27th)https://t.co/92GhonpwXq pic.twitter.com/JGn3lJLO7k — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) November…
I was so taken by David Herdson’s observation in the previous thread header about how poor the current Ipsos MORI government satisfaction ratings that I thought I would dig into the pollster’s huge archive to see if there were historical precdents. What’s great about the firm which has been polling UK politics since the 1970s is that it has been asking the same questions in the same format over the decades. You can therefore make comparisons. Going through the the…
Above is the Wikipedia list of all the published polls since the general election campaign began. The overall picture is of not that much variation with the Tories in a range of 37-42%, LAB 27-31% and the LDs 15-17%. The one party where there’s a lot of variance is Brexit which has a polling range of 4-10%. That’s largely explained by YouGov’s methodology change that factors in the fact that Farage’s party will be only be contesting non-CON seats. Generally…
Survation Mail post Supreme Court poll votingCON 27% -2LAB 24% =LD 22% +4BREX 16% -1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation/Mail poll. How would you vote in new EU referendumRemain 53%Leave 47% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation Mail poll best PMJohnson 41%Swinson 21%Corbyn 18% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019 Survation/Mail poll "Should Johnson say sorry to the Queen"Yes 62%No 27%DK 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 26, 2019
This should scare the sh*t out of Number 10 https://t.co/1buBaBDotI — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019 Consider how deep into Labour territory Johnson may have to dig to offset losses in Scotland, London & southern Remainia. Some big shifts likely required among Lab voters who culturally agree w/ Cons on Brexit but economicallyare v v sceptical about whether Cons "on their side" — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) September 12, 2019 Looking through the information released so far it shows that…
The Cummings and Johnson strategy has been clear for a while, sacrifice Tory seats in Scotland and Remain leaning seats elsewhere whilst winning a lot of Labour held seats that vote Leave. It is an interesting strategy that may work but looking at those numbers from the latest Opinium poll will make for sober reading for Cummings and Johnson. My own belief is that Labour voters are tribal and loyal and the jump to the Tories will not happen in…
Would Brits see a no-deal Brexit as a success or a failure? A failure: 48%A success: 24%Neither: 16%https://t.co/s0S7LwaCCm pic.twitter.com/nuyJshWMl7 — YouGov (@YouGov) September 10, 2019 Leavers have played the expectations game over a deal very badly One of my assumptions has been that after a period of sustained No Deal support for No Deal and Brexit would crater like a failed NASA mission to Mars and this poll seems show happiness for a No Deal Brexit starts from a lowish…