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Even UKIP voters back the plan that cigarettes be sold in plain packaging

Even UKIP voters back the plan that cigarettes be sold in plain packaging

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Conservative caution on the issue looks like a mistake? It’s being said that one of the reasons why the government has deferred the decision on cigarettes being sold in plain packaging is because of UKIP. CON ministers in particular didn’t want to provide ammunition for the most well-known of political smokers, Nigel Farage. Yet the polling suggests that there’s widespread support for the proposal. The chart above,from the Sunday Times poll on May 10th, shows the party cross-tabs with even…

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LAB lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again

LAB lead with YouGov down to 5 percent once again

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As ever we must not equate correlation with causation Once again the Sun has not disappointed us. Generally we have to wait until 6am for its daily YouGov poll to be released by the pollster. But if it is good for the blues then, like now, it is Tweeted early. The figures are above. The LAB share of 37% is the lowest for the party since May 29th and is 2 down on yesterday. The latest changes are all within…

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Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year are probably going to be disappointed

Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year are probably going to be disappointed

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EdM no longer on the danger list The Speccie's James Forsyth has a good summary of PMQS http://t.co/Vrgk69UawN pic.twitter.com/NnEl9MTGgr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 10, 2013 The blow up last week of the Falkirk selection contributed to EdM’s very poor start to July. He looked uncertain and less than self assured as he sought to deal with issues that opened up the whole question of Labour’s historical link with the trade union movement. This came at a time when the Labour’s…

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The Lynton Crosby way of squeezing UKIP could end up reinforcing LD switchers to LAB

The Lynton Crosby way of squeezing UKIP could end up reinforcing LD switchers to LAB

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If this is the newly confident Crosby line for Tories it's good: never mind Ukip this is a fight for a Tory or Labour government #bbcsp — Miranda Green (@greenmiranda) July 7, 2013 The excellent Miranda Green Tweeted the above during BBC1’s Sunday Politics yesterday and my immediate reaction was that she was right and this form of rhetoric would work very effectively at GE2015 squeezing the UKIP vote and moving it to the Tories. Framing the battle in these…

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The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

The trends for Labour’s lead and UKIP’s share in Sunday Times YouGov polls

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Today’s key YouGov poll details The latest YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has LAB lead down to 6% CON 33% LAB 39% LD 11% UKIP 12% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 All 3 leaders take small hit in YouGov leader ratings Dave minus 20 from -17 EdM minus 34 from -31 Clegg minus 51 from -49 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 7, 2013 29% tell YouGov that EdM has been too close to the Unions 13% too distant 22% about right. 36% say don't know — Mike…

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The NHS at 65: What do we really think of it?

The NHS at 65: What do we really think of it?

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Ipsos MORI: NHS at 65 from Ipsos MORI There’s also some Survation polling for the Mirror/ITV On NHS's 65th birthday 85% tell Survation that they were satisfied with their most recent experience of the service http://t.co/Sjjkl3GsRQ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 5, 2013 78% tell Survation Mirror/ITV Daybreak poll that the NHS should always remain free at the point of delivery http://t.co/fZ5Ms8IzjT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 5, 2013 74% of sample in Survation NHS poll opposed the idea of…

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The Tory YouGov mini-surge seems to be over

The Tory YouGov mini-surge seems to be over

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The LAB lead setting down to pre-spending review levels Almost no change in today's YouGov Sun poll CON 32 LAB 40 LD 9 UKIP 13 For the 3rd consecutive day the LDs in single figures — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 4, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to just 5pc

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Are figures like this the new normality? There’s a general rule about the Sun’s daily poll from YouGov – if the numbers are good for the Tories then they get Tweeted overnight. If not then we usually have to wait until the normal publication time of 6am. The latest figures came out before midnight and show the CON and LAB shares at exactly the same level as they were in Sunday’s poll from the firm for the Sun’s News International…

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