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The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impact on the “best party on NHS” ratings

The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impact on the “best party on NHS” ratings

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LAB YouGov lead as best party on NHS remains at 12% pic.twitter.com/wzwuLsixfe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 One of the big apparent “wins” for the Tories before they broke up for the summer recess was their response on the Keogh report on hospital failings which had happened on Labour’s watch. This it was hoped would help the party eat into the traditional LAB lead that they have on the NHS. The CON attack was high octane and certainly…

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Populus online has CON closing the gap to just 5 pc – but are Tory members raising their expectation too high?

Populus online has CON closing the gap to just 5 pc – but are Tory members raising their expectation too high?

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Meanwhile nearly 2 in 3 CON members believe that Dave can hang on Remember that July 5 years ago when the betting was on a CON landslide At this precise point ahead of GE2015 in Jul 2008 William Hills made it a 40% chance that CON would win a 100+ majority The bet was a loser — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 29, 2013

The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

The big July polling news: The decline of UKIP and the launch of the twice weekly Populus online survey

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All the firms have UKIP in the same direction The easing off of UKIP support is one of the factors that has helped the Tories in recent weeks. We should get a sense on Thursday of whether this movement in the polls is reflected in UKIP’s performance in real elections. Two of the County Council divisions won by the purples on May 2nd are up. The ever so stable new polling series from Populus There should be another Populus online…

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There are almost no changes at the top in the July Ipsos-MORI Index

There are almost no changes at the top in the July Ipsos-MORI Index

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Very little change in top concerns in July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. See chart pic.twitter.com/Ws8Pm8o7Qs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2013 Concern about the NHS remains stable In spite of recent political battles concern about the NHS unchanged in July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. See trend pic.twitter.com/waAx1hzTMt — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 25, 2013 Concern about the EU/Europe drops Just 6% name the EU as an issue facing Britain in the July Ipsos-MORI Issues Index. See trend pic.twitter.com/tbG4ov73mB — Mike Smithson…

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The NHS is to the Tories what immigration is to Labour – a policy area they can’t win. Better to move on

The NHS is to the Tories what immigration is to Labour – a policy area they can’t win. Better to move on

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Can the Tories ever win on the NHS? – The YouGov best party tracker pic.twitter.com/Kim189k5BB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 24, 2013 Can Labour ever win on immigration? – The YouGov best party tracker pic.twitter.com/grMqb6Esad — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 24, 2013 The best strategy is to steer the debate on to areas of strength A week, as Harold Wilson used to say, is a long in politics and just seven days ago the Tories felt they were on to…

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LAB lead amongst Unite members jumps 14 to 26 percent

LAB lead amongst Unite members jumps 14 to 26 percent

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The views of Unite members on key policy issues according to today's @LordAshcroft poll pic.twitter.com/caVYxPux9t — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 23, 2013 There’s a new Michael Ashcroft poll of Unite members covering voting intention and issues associated with union funding. Like other Ashcroft polls we don’t know the pollster but my guess is that it is YouGov which built up a reasonable size base of union members for its leadership polling in 2007 and 2010. The voting intention shares, seen…

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The Tories get to within 3 percent in tonight’s YouGov poll

The Tories get to within 3 percent in tonight’s YouGov poll

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LAB lead down to just 3% in latest YouGov/Sun poll Lab 38 Con 35 LD 11 UKIP 10. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013 Tonight's 3% LAB YouGov lead is the smallest since March 2012 – before Osborne's budget — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 22, 2013 Are the Tories closing in on Labour in tonight's polling? No way of knowing if your methodology arbitrarily reduces UKIP support… — Damian Lyons Lowe (@DamianSurvation) July 22, 2013 According to Electoral Calculus…

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Even if the Tories clawed back all of their 2010 voters who’ve switched to LAB the most they’d put on is less than 2pc

Even if the Tories clawed back all of their 2010 voters who’ve switched to LAB the most they’d put on is less than 2pc

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Why the potential for swingback is so limited There’s a new Populus online poll out – the third in just eight days – and all the fieldwork took place over the weekend. The figures with changes on Friday’s poll are LAB 39 (↔); CON 32 (↑1); LD 12 (↔); UKIP 9 (↓1). What’s extraordinary about GE2015 voting intention polling is how little crossover there has been between the two main parties since GE2010. Just look at the chart above showing…

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