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We don’t vote for parties or leaders. We vote for individual MPs The 2013/14 political season is now into its third week and from a poll watcher’s point of view there have been a couple of really good innovations which I think will help the process of election forecasting. I really like the new ComRes question about which party voters think will make them better off. It’s that perception, I’d argue, rather than which is seen as “best on the…

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Ipsos-MORI find the Tories a best party on economy, crime and immigration. See chart pic.twitter.com/5fdpKbm6xr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 LAB wins on areas that directly affect people LAB seen as best party on education, health care, unemployment and housing. See Ipsos-MORI chart pic.twitter.com/Gy7HuI9fKW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 22, 2013 As ComRes found people think they’d be better off under LAB Latest YouGov sees LAB lead at 4 LAB lead at 4% in today's YouGov for Sunday…

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For the second time in two months a major pollster reports that LAB and CON are level-pegging on 36% pic.twitter.com/e0p2mzUYcj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 19, 2013 Some numbers to dampen LAB spirits Whenever you get a poll that is out of the ordinary you have to treat the findings with some scepticism and today’s YouGov poll for the Sun is no exception. In July ICM also had both LAB and CON on 36% a that wasn’t supported by other…

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A couple of days ago I was lucky enough (genuinely) to attend (sneak into the back of) a polling seminar hosted at the LSE featuring professional pollsters, academics, and a few assorted others like Mike (also complimentary wine). To be specific it was hosted somewhere in the depths of an especially labyrinthine and oddly signposted LSE building that left attendees wandering the corridors in search of rescue. LSE is one of the universities that is attempting to engage with the…

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How Labour tacticals are helping the LDs in their key targets Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

@LordAshcroft poll finds LAB doing better in key CON-LAB battlegrounds than country as whole. 8.5% swing as opposed to 6.5% one — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2013 CON lead in LD battlegrounds just 1% up since GE2015 @LordAshcroft poll One in 4 LAB supporters ready to switch to LDs in CON-LD battlegrounds when specific constituency question asked — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 15, 2013 The 12,500 sample poll was carried out by phone in early August at a time when…

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