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Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

Why the electoral bias against the Conservatives could be even greater next time

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Disproportionate 2010 LD>LAB switching in the marginals could shift more seats We all know that the national vote threshold for LAB overall majority is considerably lower than for the Tories. The reason is partly the boundaries but mostly down to the way the Labour vote is distributed. Generally LAB supporters appear much less likely to turnout in seats where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. But could the overall bias against the Conservatives be even greater at GE2015 than at…

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Looking at the trend in YouGov polls since mid-Sept it does seem that LAB has had 2-3 pc boost

Looking at the trend in YouGov polls since mid-Sept it does seem that LAB has had 2-3 pc boost

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Update : Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/ The Sun results 28th October – Con 31%, Lab 40%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%; APP -28 http://t.co/xof1uRF0TJ — YouGov (@YouGov) October 29, 2013 A year ago the party was in the 42%-44% range The two great rules of polling analysis are focus on party shares not leads and always look at the trend. This is what I’ve tried to do in the above chart focusing on the LAB share since Miliband’s…

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Questions on satisfaction with your own MP should become a regular part of polling

Questions on satisfaction with your own MP should become a regular part of polling

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Our vote is not for a party or PM but for an individual MP A key aspect of UK elections that seems to get sidelined is the nature of what we are actually doing when we vote at general elections. We are not, except in the EU parliament elections, voting for a specific party and we are not voting for a Prime Minister. Our choice is for an individual to represent us at Westminster and to many voters that, as…

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Tories get to within one percent in today’s YouGov daily poll

Tories get to within one percent in today’s YouGov daily poll

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A narrowing lead or normal variation within margin of error? The Tory share of 37% is the best for the party since March 16 2012 a few days before the budget which seemed set off the decline. Four weeks ago YouGov had the two parties level-pegging. Ten days later LAB had an 11% lead. 37% is also what the party secured at GE2010 which in view of the austerity measures is quite remarkable. As yet I have not seen the…

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Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

Populus and Survation had almost the same raw figures for UKIP support yet their headline numbers were very different

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The impact of different polling methodologies Both Populus and Survation operate in a very similar manner. Both do their fieldwork online, both weight for likely turnout, and both apply a formula to ensure that their samples are politically balanced. Survation uses past voting weighting comparing what respondents said they did at GE2015 and with the actual result. Populus asks “which political party would you say you have usually most closely identified yourself with?” and compares back to the 2010 Social…

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Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back

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The other big battle of GE2015 There are two groups voters who will decide GE2015 – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say they are voting LAB, and those who voted for Cameron’s Conservatives who now tell pollsters that they will vote UKIP. We have focused a fair bit on the former but less so on the latter. The big blue hope is that that when faced with the prospect of a Miliband-led LAB government they will…

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With Dacre attacks on the Guardian and Cameron attacks on the BBC check out YouGov’s most recent “Trust Tracker”

With Dacre attacks on the Guardian and Cameron attacks on the BBC check out YouGov’s most recent “Trust Tracker”

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This was the YouGov chart published last week on the Mail-Miliband spat pic.twitter.com/dIeRGc1hvA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 12, 2013 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB