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Times leads on YouGov poll on interest rates pic.twitter.com/Y5NsbeCb3a — PolPics (@PolPics) December 26, 2013 But is the headline just wishful thinking from the Times With the possiblility of interest rates increasing in 2014 the Times is leading on polling that suggests that more pople would benefit than would lose out. This certainly runs contrary to the general media narrative that low interests rates are a “good thing”. Maybe this is because those who work in the media are more…

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How the Populus party ID weightings worked against #UKIP in today's Populus poll When the views of 208 became 21 pic.twitter.com/yxpoNWhQlf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 20, 2013 Using a 2010 model might not be right for 2014 The publication last week of the latest round of the Bown-funded constituency polling set off a debate about methodology with efforts to attack what Survation had done. The main objections were that the firm wasn’t using what have become standard approaches to ensure…

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UPDATE – But LAB YouGov leads jumps 6 to 8% YouGov/Sun poll LAB lead jumps from 2% yesterday to 8% tonight CON 33%-3 LAB 41%+3 LD 8%= UKIP 13%+2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2013 So no autumn statement boost with ComRes phone There’s the December phone poll from ComRes for the Indy just out and the figures are almost exactly the same as in November. Only shift is that UKIP are down 1. The firm’s phone polls clearly use a different methodology…

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Tonight we’ve got four new Alan Bown funded specific constituency polls carried out by Survation and the message is not good for the blues. Bown is a UKIP donor and national office holder. Just like Lord Ashcroft’s 13k sample phone polling of the marginals in September Survation find that the Tory position in the seats is worse than in national polling where we are seeing a 6-7% CON>LAB swing. The chart above shows moves much bigger than that in each…

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