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At the start of lockdown Johnson’s Tories had poll leads of upto 26% – now the latest two surveys have that down at 6%

At the start of lockdown Johnson’s Tories had poll leads of upto 26% – now the latest two surveys have that down at 6%

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At this rate crossover might happen quite soon On the face of it the polling trends look worrying for the Conservatives and good for LAB which is seeing a lot of progress in getting the gap smaller. However I don’t think we should read too much into this because, of course, the big difference between start of the lockdown and now is that LAB now has a new leader and not the electorally unpopular Corbyn who led the party to…

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Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

Will Labour lead in a nationwide YouGov poll in 2020?

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This market by Ladbrokes on Labour leading in a UK wide Westminster voting intention poll is an intriguing one, the most recent YouGov poll had the Conservatives 15% ahead, during the first phase of the pandemic that lead peaked at 24%, prior to the pandemic that lead was around the early 20s, so it is fair to say the Conservatives lead with YouGov has been consistently high. So what chance of Labour leading in a YouGov poll this year? The…

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The government’s approval rating falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

The government’s approval rating falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

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Not much detail available yet from the Opinium poll for the Observer but what we do have is pretty devastating for the government. On March 26th, just after the lockdown came in, the pollster that came out best at GE2019 found a net 43% in the government’s approval rating. Tonight’s poll has that down to a net minus 3. So overall a 45 point drop in seven weeks. I’ve updated this to include the Opinium chart showing its trend.

Why it could be politically challenging prioritising the economy over people’s health

Why it could be politically challenging prioritising the economy over people’s health

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New Ipsos MORI poll finds little change during the lockdown By far the biggest decision ministers will have to take over the coronavirus pandemic is when to ease the restrictions in order to to boost the economy once again. This is becoming increasingly urgent because of the sheer cost of so many being placed effectively on the government payroll The message coming from government suggests that ministers are becoming more more eager to start to close down some of the…

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Some points from today’s new polling

Some points from today’s new polling

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There’s a huge amount of doubt on whether the 100k a day testing target will be reached How likely or unlikely do you think it is that the government will hit its target of testing 100,000 people per day for coronavirus by the end of the month? (YouGov) Only a third intend to wear a face mask Providing you are able to get one, do you intend on wearing a face mask in public once lockdown is lifted?

Even LAB voters are giving Johnson positive leader ratings

Even LAB voters are giving Johnson positive leader ratings

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There haven’t been many opinion polls of late but this afternoon we’ve got the detail of the latest Deltapoll which includes its regular well/badly leader ratings. The detail is shown in the panel above together with what those sampled did at GE2019 and the referendum. For me the most interesting numbers are the views of Johnson particularly the sub-set of LAB voters just three and a bit months ago. Generally there is a very clear party split in views of…

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Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

Starmer moves to a 91% chance in the betting after a LAB selectorate poll has him winning outright on the first round

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It’s been reported this evening that a new YouGov/LAB selectorate poll for Sky Nws has: Starmer 53% Long-Bailey 31% Nandy 16% A total of 1,323 party members/supporters/affiliates were interviewed from Feb 15-Feb 20th. Under Labour’s election rules if no candidate has 50%+ on first choices then the second choices of the contender with the fewest votes are added to the totals. So if Starmer does indeed get 53% that would obviate the need for second preferences to be taken into…

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