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Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

Tonight’s Opinium poll for the Observer sees the LAB share drop to lowest level since 2010

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The LDs get best Opinium figures since 2011 The fortnightly online poll by Opinium for the Observer is out and sees the LAB lead down to 5% and the party with its smallest share with the firm since 2010. The pollster is the only online firm not to have any political weighting which makes an interesting contrast with the other internet operators. It generally has high UKIP scores and low LDs ones. Back in July it had the yellows on…

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On this day exactly two years ago YouGov had CON in the lead on 40pc

On this day exactly two years ago YouGov had CON in the lead on 40pc

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How it looked for the blues before the rise of UKIP & Osborne’s March 2012 budget At the end of February 2012 the Tories were still getting the benefit from the after-glow of what became known as the “Veto-gasm” – the polling boost that followed from David Cameron’s famous Brussels veto. The positive mood was seen in the betting. In mid-January 2012 the Betfair price on a CON overall majority tightened to a 41% chance while Labour was rated at…

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Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

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And there’s a whiff of good news for the LDs at the Euros What I’ve found to be a fascinating piece of polling for the British Future think tank has just been published by Ipsos-MORI. Rather than the conventional voting intention questions interviewees were asked for views of the four main national parties and whether they’d consider voting for them in both general elections and the Euros, general elections only, the Euros only, or whether they’d never consider voting for…

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So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against Harriet Harman is not being reflected in the daily YouGov figures

So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against Harriet Harman is not being reflected in the daily YouGov figures

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LAB lead back up to 6 in tonight's YouGov Sun poll CON 33% LAB 39% LD 10% UKIP 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2014 That is not to say that it won’t Today’s YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB back at 39% the share at which it has been getting for months as the YouGov weekly average trend chart above shows. One of the dangers with all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. Clearly many factors are at…

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Three months to go till the Euros and concern about UKIP’s key policy, immigration, sees a sharp drop in the Issues Index

Three months to go till the Euros and concern about UKIP’s key policy, immigration, sees a sharp drop in the Issues Index

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Sharp drop in concerns on immigration in the February @IpsosMORI Issues Index. See pic.twitter.com/eNXtuxInaP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 24, 2014 @MSmithsonPB @IpsosMORI Probably because we didn't get a surge of Romanians and Bulgarians arriving as some predicted! — The Oncoming Storm (@TheOncoming) February 25, 2014 The February Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is out and the summary findings are above. As can be seen the big mover since January has been immigration which has fallen 7%. Also down is concern about…

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Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

Just over 14 months to go to GE2015 and LAB’s position remains solid in the PB YouGov weekly average

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It’s very hard to forecast a CON majority Since before Christmas I’ve been maintaining an average of the four main party shares from the 5 YouGov polls that appear every week. This enables us to follow trends much better than looking at individual polls from the firm which like all surveys can sometimes be affected by sampling issues. The big message looking at the charts above is how constant the LAB figure has been within a range over the two…

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YouGov asked people to predict what the national voting intention figures would be at the end of 2014. Here are the results

YouGov asked people to predict what the national voting intention figures would be at the end of 2014. Here are the results

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YouGov recently ran a competition, open from January 17th-31st, that asked participants to estimate the end-of-year voting intention figures to win a prize, after Steve Thompson won last year’s competition by guessing each party’s position exactly (except for UKIP – he was 2 points high). The same question was then asked to the general public in a nationally representative survey. The predictions, averaged together, give a window into what direction British people see the winds of political change heading this…

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