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Ipsos Mori April Political Monitor is out

Ipsos Mori April Political Monitor is out

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Ipsos Mori sees a surge for UKIP pic.twitter.com/RrP1NjOHiC — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2014 Ipsos Mori leader ratings. pic.twitter.com/DDcAPC9wo7 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2014 UKIP gets a surge from the debates whilst the the Lib Dems take a 4 point hit. Labour will be delighted that the budget bounce other pollsters have shown hasn’t happened here as their share of the vote is up 2 and their lead has doubled from 3 to 6. Nick…

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UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

UKIP is taking SIX times as many votes from the Tories as it is from Labour

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In no way are the purples as big a threat to LAB as CON There’s consistent talk at the moment of UKIP being a bigger threat to LAB than CON. This is a point that Mr Farage wants to hammer home on virtually every occasion. Yet quite simply this is not supported by the data. Just look at the chart above based on data from the month’s biggest poll, the Populus/FT March aggregate with a sample of 16,424 Because of…

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Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

Worrying GE2015 and Euro numbers for the Tories in latest Survation/Mail on Sunday poll

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Last week the Survation GE2015 gap was just 1% – now it’s 7% Survation finds 6% CON drop for EP2014 as both UKIP & LD get boosts On the Euro polling the big difference between Survation and ComRes was on the timing of the fieldwork. All of the Survation work took place after the Clegg/Farage BBC TV debate. As can be seen the firm reports big changes compared with a week ago with the Tories as the main loser. I’m…

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Farage v Clegg post debate polling is out

Farage v Clegg post debate polling is out

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The first two polls have big victories for Farage   BREAKING: FARAGE WINS: Farage, 68%; Nick Clegg, 27%. Don’t know, 5%. #europedebate pic.twitter.com/Kkd3KEskkD — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) April 2, 2014 BREAKING – Gdn/ICM poll finds FARAGE beats CLEGG by 69% to 31% — Tom Clark (@guardian_clark) April 2, 2014 I’ll update this thread when the other polling comes in. Update I – From ICM More from the Guardian ICM poll. Who had the more appealing personality? Farage – 49%…

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On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2

On a TV near you from 7pm: Nick versus Nigel – the second leg BBC2

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Getting ready for the big debate pic.twitter.com/AcBRMoPBvw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 There'll be 3+ debate polls tonight Opinium & ICM have demographics weightings unlike YouGov last week which didn't even do gender split — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 2, 2014 Because this is on BBC2 it’s expected that it will get a much larger audience. Who’ll win? As has been said many times before – both of them. This thread will be updated. Mike Smithson 2004-2014: The view from…

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Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

Ever so slightly the two most important measures for GE2015 have edged to the Tories in March

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But there’s still a long way to go As regulars will know my analysis of the GE 2015 outcome is mostly focused on two key polling measures – the proportion of 2010 CON voters now saying UKIP and the 2010 LD who say they’ll vote Labour. These have to decline if the blues are to have any chance whatsoever of remaining in power on May 8th next year. For the polling of the past four years has seen very little…

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The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

The ComRes “East of England” poll that isn’t quite what the BBC reported it to be

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How BBC East reported a sub-set of 58 people from a 3 wk old ComRes EU2014 poll The party %ages add up to 112 pic.twitter.com/t6vVQkP8Tg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 1, 2014 There’s been a huge fuss over the past couple of hours over a ComRes a EP2014 “poll” that has UKIP on 44% in their area of greatest strength, East of England. The above is a screenshot showing the data was portrayed in the “Look East” programme. Only problem is…

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