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This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

This ComRes poll suggests UKIP will not be fading at the General Election

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TELEGRAPH: UKIP vote no flash in the pan #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/L1bqPLSZeD — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) May 30, 2014 ComRes have polled on behalf of UKIP donor Paul Sykes asking what UKIP voters in the Euros would do at the next General Election, the telegraph reports that 37 per cent of UKIP voters said that they were “certain” to support the party at the general election. Another 49 per cent said that they were “likely” to do so, while 14 per…

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Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

Ipsos-Mori Issues Index for May is out

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The Ipsos-Mori issues index is out for May. As Mike has noted in the past, “The Ipsos-MORI Issues Index is unique because the questioning is unprompted & is seen as best test of the salience of issues.” Largely it is no change for all voters.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (all voters) pic.twitter.com/0QMLVsk1ls — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 30, 2014 The issues through Kipper eyes.   @IpsosMORI issues Index for May (UKIP voters) pic.twitter.com/Qcvdx8LwBN — The Screaming Eagles…

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One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predecessors

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With one year to go, I thought it would be useful to track how Ed and Dave compare to their predecessors one year before a General Election. I’ve been using the ratings from Ipsos-Mori that go back nearly forty years and are considered to be the Gold Standards of leader ratings.     Looking at the Leader of the Opposition net ratings, sometimes the figures speak for themselves. Only Leaders of the Opposition  with net positive ratings one year have…

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It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

It looks like mentioning Ed’s name is no longer a drag for Labour

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  As part of their polling for The Times, YouGov asked “Imagine that at the next election the party leaders remained David Cameron for the Conservatives, Ed Miliband for Labour and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats. How would you vote?” Normally they ask “If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for? Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Scottish Nationalist/Plaid cymru, some other party, would not vote, don’t know” Now the first thing that caught my eye…

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Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

Lib Dem voters sticking with Nick Clegg according to new YouGov-Times poll

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After several days of pressure on Nick Clegg new YouGov polling for the Times suggests that most current party supporters want him to remain as leader. Even amongst those who voted for the party in 2010 he has a lead. The point, of course, is that those still supporting the party are likely to be loyalists. Amongst all sampled, however, 42% say he shouldn’t remain with 30% saying he should. As to whether the party would do better being led…

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Polling Round Up

Polling Round Up

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Lord Ashcroft’s latest weekly phone poll is out. @LordAshcroft latest Westminster VI poll, changes since last week Con 29 (nc), Lab 31 (-4), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 17 (+3) — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 27, 2014   Populus have published their bi-weekly online poll New Populus VI: Lab 36 (=); Cons 34 (=); LD 9 (=); UKIP 14 (=); Oth 8 (+1) Tables http://t.co/GvE36tpnBc — Populus (@PopulusPolls) May 27, 2014 Meanwhile Ipsos-Mori have some polling out, here are the…

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Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg

Someone or maybe a group of Lib Dems are spending serious money trying to oust Clegg

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The significance of private ICM polling on Clegg not just bad numbers but that it was commissioned by an LD supporter pic.twitter.com/ddaM77207O — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 27, 2014 But who is behind it and what’s the next step? Hopefully later today ICM will release the detailed data from the private polling that’s splashed by the Guardian this morning. The broad message of what’s been leaked is that the party stands to do worse in four key seats that it…

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EP14: Results summary with changes on 2009

EP14: Results summary with changes on 2009

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CON did better than virtually all the polls while Ukip did worse The broad trend was in line with what I’d predicted though my bets on Ukip not making it top place were losers. AIFE took about 2% in most regions where they stood Undoubtedly this cost Ukip votes. The 2% was exactly in line with my prediction. A dire, dire result for Lib Dems and Nick Clegg Who know what will happen? It looks as though YouGov were clear…

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