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Maybe Ed Miliband has judged that the Tory press isn’t the force that it was

Maybe Ed Miliband has judged that the Tory press isn’t the force that it was

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The dramatic fall in circulations of national papers since 2010. http://t.co/eQX4jDOclp pic.twitter.com/8icyCqzdvF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 9, 2015 And internet paywalls mean some papers have even less influence In yesterday’s Indy on Sunday (circulation down from 153,975 in January 2010 to 97,646 last month) John Rentoul was questioning the wisdom of the Miliband brother that he didn’t support for the LAB leadership in 2010 apparently taking on the “Tory press” Rentoul noted that Ed is currently on the end…

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If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

If the LDs experience is anything to go by then major party status for UKIP is bad news for the blues

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Farage and Carswell pic.twitter.com/LN9BCE7d18 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 9, 2015 The chances of the purples fading must now be lower One of the features of general elections in recent times is that the Lib Dems always seem to get a boost during the campaign. Thus a 4-5% increase in their final share at the election compared with pre-formal campaign polls has almost been the norm. What has driven this is the extra attention they get from the broadcast media…

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A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

A key factor at GE2015: Will UKIP be deemed a “major party”?

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Corporeal looks at the BBC’s Clacton decision One of the unresolved questions surrounding the next general election is how the media will treat UKIP, will they be pushed into the background as coverage hones in on the Lib Dems, (and especially) Labour, and the Conservatives or will they get brought into the mainstream debate and get a share of the precious oxygen of publicity. Most interesting, and probably most symbolic of all is whether they will get a look in…

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So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against Harriet Harman is not being reflected in the daily YouGov figures

So far, at least, the intense Daily Mail campaign against Harriet Harman is not being reflected in the daily YouGov figures

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LAB lead back up to 6 in tonight's YouGov Sun poll CON 33% LAB 39% LD 10% UKIP 11% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 25, 2014 That is not to say that it won’t Today’s YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB back at 39% the share at which it has been getting for months as the YouGov weekly average trend chart above shows. One of the dangers with all polling analysis is to confuse correlation with causation. Clearly many factors are at…

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Do the media ‘get it’ yet?

Do the media ‘get it’ yet?

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Press, public and politicians – who needs defending from whom It was no doubt a coincidence that Andy Coulson and Rebekah Brooks were in court in relation to the charges against them over the phone hacking scandal on the same day that newspaper and magazine publishers were also in court seeking to prevent the granting of a Royal Charter on press regulation.  Nonetheless, the former made a somewhat ironic backdrop to the latter. Not that it’s just the tabloids.  The…

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Why politicians of all colours will have less to fear from the press at GE2015

Why politicians of all colours will have less to fear from the press at GE2015

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Remember how the Sun’s decision to drop LAB was the big news when party was last in Brighton Sales drops & paywalls make press less important When this Sun published in Sept 2009 sales 3,079,998 Now 2,258,359l pic.twitter.com/ak3sLVIVyZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 24, 2013 Since then the circulation of almost all papers has dropped sharply The online presence is being reduced by paywalls

The national press will be much less influential at GE2015 than in previous elections

The national press will be much less influential at GE2015 than in previous elections

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Look how the industry has declined How the circulations of national newspapers have declined since GE2010 See table pic.twitter.com/4FTguIS1Ld — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 31, 2013 The ground war is going to matter much more than the air war We spend a lot of time on PB trying to assess the impact of specific developments or stories on voting behaviour. One factor that we should bear in mind is that the national media is in a sharp decline. For every five…

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