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Category: London and local elections

Sadiq Khan 20% ahead of Goldsmith according to Survation phone poll

Sadiq Khan 20% ahead of Goldsmith according to Survation phone poll

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New Survation London Mayoral poll has Khan 15% ahead Khan 49%Zac 34%UKIP 5%LD 3%GRN 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 Survation Mayoral poll after allocating 2nd prefsKhan 60%Zac 40% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 Survation Mayoral poll was by phone & carried out from Apr 21 to 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 28, 2016 So on the face of it a great poll for Sadiq Khan, Labour, Corbyn and those PBers who got on the…

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With Zac continuing to trail some Tory voices are questioning the Crosby-inspired campaign

With Zac continuing to trail some Tory voices are questioning the Crosby-inspired campaign

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Donald Brind looks at the Goldsmith campaign tactics Pick your metaphor. Canine or feline. The folklore surrounding Tory election guru Lynton Crosby has both “dead cats” and “dog whistles”. They refer to a strategy based on playing the man not the ball; issuing innuendos and smears rather than fighting on the issues.He was David Cameron’s saviour in the general election but the Crosby approach failed to deliver for the Canadian Tories back in October. Crosby’s fingerprints are all over the…

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The May elections less than 4 weeks away – Why so few Tories are raising their voices against Cameron

The May elections less than 4 weeks away – Why so few Tories are raising their voices against Cameron

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From Profs Rallings & Thrasher – council seats up for election on May 5th pic.twitter.com/kMvXF0HZhc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2016 From Profs Rallings & Thrasher – projection of seat gains & losses for May 5th local elections pic.twitter.com/J1OiRK5Wm9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 8, 2016 On May 5th more than 2,000 Conservatives will be putting themselves forward as candidates for local councils, the Scottish and Welsh parliaments, the London Assembly as well as for police commissioners in every…

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If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

If there is a “Bradley effect” in the Mayoral race it’ll have a lower impact in London than elsewhere

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There has been a fair bit of talked about a possible “Bradley effect in the London mayoral election on May 5th. This refers to the well observed effect of people telling pollsters that they will support a non-white candidate when in fact they don’t end up doing so. There are two reasons to believe why this might not be significant in the London mayoral election even though the Labour candidate, Sadiq Khan,is a Muslim whose parents emigrated to Britain from…

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Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals

Rallings & Thrasher: LAB set to lose 150 seats in the May 5th locals

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Prof Colin Rallings with his 2016 local elections prediction pic.twitter.com/Pl6W0871Bn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote share for May elections CON 33LAB 30LD 16UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2016 Today it’s been the annual local elections briefing hosted by the Political Studies Association. As per usual Profs Rallings and Thrasher announced their predictions based on party performances in local by elections which take place almost every week. They have a…

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Zac Goldsmith’s odds have eased to the point where he becomes a value bet

Zac Goldsmith’s odds have eased to the point where he becomes a value bet

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Winner London Mayoral Election May 2016 This could be tighter than the polls Like many PBers I’m sitting on bets at 33/1 placed in March 2013 on Sadiq Khan to be next Mayor of London. This was on the basis of a tip from Henry G Manson who argued that EdM’s then appointment of the Tooting MP as Shadow Minister for London would play a big part in him securing the nomination. And so it turned out. He’s now up…

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You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

You’ve seen the latest London Mayoral poll – now predict the election in the PB Prize Competition

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Although it has been hugely overshadowed by the EURef the London Mayoral election on May 5th is proving to be an interesting battle. Thanks to Mark Hopkins and his NoJam widget we’ve prepared another PB Prize competition. Simple predict the first round shares for the main parties and the overall winner. Remember that the election gives voters two choices. A first choice and what is effectively a second one which only comes into play if their first choice is not…

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In May we might find out if Corbyn is the liability for Labour the Tories hope he is

In May we might find out if Corbyn is the liability for Labour the Tories hope he is

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The Tory plan to win the London Mayoral election is to portray Khan as Corbyn's man in London, part I pic.twitter.com/EMnM3jpX8V — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 7, 2016 The Tory plan to win the London Mayoral election is to portray Khan as Corbyn's man in London, part II pic.twitter.com/3ScoN4pS4o — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 7, 2016 The Tory plan to win the London Mayoral election is to portray Khan as Corbyn's man in London, part III pic.twitter.com/uwYb4inyEY — TSE (@TSEofPB) February 7,…

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