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Category: London and local elections

New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round victory in his re-election bid

New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round victory in his re-election bid

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He is well positioned to win a 2020 contest There’s a new YouGov/QMUL poll London Mayoral poll just out that has Sadiq Khan on 55% against just 27% for his Tory opponent Shaun Bailey. The voting system, it will be recalled is based on the supplementary vote so that a contender needs to win 50% only first round to be sure of victory. If indeed at the 2020 election Khan ends up according to the poll then he will secure…

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Take Khan to the bank

Take Khan to the bank

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The tip I’m about to give is not particularly exciting, or thrilling and it certainly won’t get you rich overnight seeing as the potential payday in question is top price 2-5 and 542 days away at the time of writing this article. But it is highly likely to win, more than the implied 71.4% that the odds suggest. The bet is Sadiq Khan to win the London mayoral election in 2020. Unlike many long term political bets (Tory & Labour…

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When some men want to be humiliated and embarrassed they hire dominatrices whereas Nigel Farage is considering running for London Mayor

When some men want to be humiliated and embarrassed they hire dominatrices whereas Nigel Farage is considering running for London Mayor

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Nigel Farage considers running for London mayor https://t.co/zKaSNpDIpc — FT UK Politics (@ftukpolitics) August 30, 2018 The Financial Times are reporting Nigel Farage is weighing a bid to become mayor of London, in an attempt to push the Conservative party into third place in the British capital. Mr Farage, who lives in Bromley in south London, quit as leader of the UK Independence party in July 2016, weeks after the UK voted to leave the EU. He is still a…

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The 2018 London Local Elections : The religious factors analysed

The 2018 London Local Elections : The religious factors analysed

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On Thursday Willesden Green (a place well known to fans of DangerMouse) returned three Labour councillors in the election that was deferred from the local elections, but in doing so completed those local elections and allowed us to make the following analysis. Normally I do so with a commentary of my own, but given the subject matter I shall let the figures do the talking and allow other members to form their own opinions. Harry Hayfield

Nearly two years before election day the Tory party is going to select their London Mayoral candidate this summer

Nearly two years before election day the Tory party is going to select their London Mayoral candidate this summer

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Justine Greening into 12/1 second favourite to win the 2020 London Mayoral election.Sadiq Khan still hot favourite to be re-elected. pic.twitter.com/L79o9zTsZI — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 1, 2018 Conservative Home reported earlier on this week that The Conservative candidate for mayor of London will be chosen this summer, during a three-month campaign culminating in a selection in time for the Party’s annual conference. The newly-agreed timetable provides for nominations in June, hustings and other campaigning during July and August, followed…

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The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

The London election polling test finds that LAB was overstated by 4 points in the final polls

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What does this say about current national polling? It is not often we get a real election against which we can compare final polls and this month’s London elections provided one such opportunity. The LAB/CON/LD shares in the final polls from YouGov and Survation are shown in the chart and compared with the overall result. As can be seen both pollsters had LAB at 51% which compared the 47% that actually happened. Survation got the Tories spot on while YouGov…

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Heidi Alexander: Could she be the LAB mayoral nominee in 2020 so Sadiq can return to the Commons to challenge Corbyn?

Heidi Alexander: Could she be the LAB mayoral nominee in 2020 so Sadiq can return to the Commons to challenge Corbyn?

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There’s a fair bit of speculation doing the rounds about why ex-Lewisham E MP and former shadow health secretary, Heidi Alexander has quit her seat for a job with Sadiq Khan at City Hall. One theory that has been put to me is that she is being lined up as Labour’s candidate for the next London Mayoral election in 2020. This would free up Sadiq and allow him to seek a return to the Commons. Alexander has never been a…

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The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did

The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did

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A key part of election analysis each year are the two academic seat projections which seek to project party Council gains and losses. These play a big part in setting the media narrative over party expectations. Professions Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have been doing this for years and their projections are based on what has been happening in the local council by-elections in the run up to polling day. The other is from Oxford Professor Stephen Fisher who is…

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