The data shows that there were only four votes in it The full detail from today’s MORI London poll is just out and the top-line split is much tighter than the 51%-49% Ken-Boris headline figures that have been reported. Look at the table above and you will see how close it is. Taking those “certain to vote” – the pollster’s standard filter, of first and qualifying second preferences and you find 207 for Ken against 203 for Boris. This works…
A trade union sponsored poll out this morning from Ipsos-MORI on the London Mayoralty put Ken Livingstone in the lead and add further to the polling confusion over the race. Amongst first choices the split amongst those “certain to vote” is JOHNSON 40%: LIVINGSTONE 41%: PADDICK 10% 14%. This is very similar to a survey by the pollster in February which had been commissioned by the Labour party. If you include all those naming a choice Ken had an 8%…
Will tonight’s Newsnight debate change anything? The first televised debate in the London Mayoral contest takes place on Newsnight on BBC2 later tonight and could be a significant occasion – especially as the questions will be put by Jeremy Paxman. The veteran Newsnight host has become something of a legend and all three of the contenders can expect a tough time from him and their fellow candidates. This could be quite an occasion and there’s always the possibility that something…
After all the argument about the weightings there’s a new YouGov poll out this morning that puts Boris even further ahead. The shares are with changes on the last poll a week ago: JOHNSON 49% (+2): LIVINGSTONE 36% (-1): PADDICK 10% (nc) This is a huge margin and is in sharp contrast to the recent ICM poll which had, after second choices were taken into account, a Boris lead of just 2%. The gap between the pollsters is unprecedented though…
Peter Kellner admits “error” in the pollster’s weighting system? Last week while I was on holiday in France Adam Boulton’s blog carried a piece suggesting that YouGov’s London samples included too many older voters, who traditionally are more inclined to vote Conservative. He suggested that if the weightings had been in line with official population statistics then Boris would have had a lead of 6% – not the 10% found in the latest survey. So is there something in the…
Would he have had a bigger lead with a different turnout approach? With the publication of two polls showing very different pictures of the UK’s biggest political betting event for years there’s going to be even more scrutiny of how the figures are produced. There are matters in relation to the YouGov approach that I have written to Peter Kellner about that I hope to discuss in the next few days In the meantime we now have the detailed data…
After the YouGov surveys showing Boris with 12% and 10% lead respectively there’s an ICM poll out tonight for the Guardian that suggests the race is much closer. When second preferences are taken into account Boris has a margin of just 2% The first round prediction has Johnson 42%: Livingstone 41%: Paddick 10% What will be particularly pleasing for the Johnson camp is that he is beating Ken on second preferences. The Guardian notes “….Among Liberal Democrats, 43% say they…
What will the absence of a Jarvis factor mean for this time? Even before the opinion polls swung against him I had doubts over whether Ken could secure a third term because of the special circumstances of his 2004 victory. Ken’s margin then was not overwhelming and might have been smaller but for the day job of the Tory challenger, Steve Norris. The election then was always going to be a tough ask for Ken because to win he needed…