Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists? Reproduced above is part of a press release issued this morning by Team Ken in what will probably be the last big move of the campaign. It consists of an attack on the planned YouGov poll that will be published tomorrow as well as the more detailed case of the complaint against the pollster that has been made to the Market Research Society. The objectives appear to be to further smear YouGov,…
Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race. And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above – what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson….
Is YouGov vs Ipsos-MORI the other big battle in the London election? In the picture above are the men who are probably the best known pollsters in the country who, in their individual ways have made major contributions to the way political opinion is tested in the UK. And both of them are on collision course over the projected outcome of the London Mayoral election. On the left is Peter Kellner who was a political journalist specialising in polling who…
Well done Don The first preference shares BORIS 46% (up 2%) and KEN 35% (down 2). After second preference YouGov are saying it is 55% to 45%. This puts the internet pollster totally out of line with MORI and MRUK which are both reporting that Ken is in the lead. I cannot recall a time when the polls have been so out of line in a critical election. The YouGov figures are so emphatic that it is hard to see…
Is this market manipulation or good information? As site regulars will know the one act that will lead directly to a permanent ban from our discussion threads is to put forward deliberately false information that could move betting markets. Last night there was a big move back to Boris in the Mayoral betting after somebody calling themself “Don” posted this :-“I’m going to take my courage in my hands and pass on a tip from a pretty reliable source (nb…
Is this a delayed reaction to the MORI and MRUK polls? Yesterday morning I expressed surprise that the MORI poll had had so little impact on the mayoral betting markets. Overnight Saturday we had the MRUK survey, also showing Ken with a narrow lead, and at first the markets seemed to take it in their stride. But this evening there has been a sharp move from Boris to Ken and it appears possible that the incumbent could find himself the…
So will it be Ken or Boris? – the PBC London Mayor Competition Just four days until London goes to the polls – who do you think will be the new Mayor and how will the various candidates fare? You will be asked to predict the first preference shares for Ken, Boris, and Brian, plus the BNP, Greens, Left List, and UKIP, and then the final vote share for your predicted overall winner. (Final vote share is winner’s total votes…
The information over-load continues With Thursday’s London Mayoral election seemingly on a knife-edge every little scrap of information could be helpful to those who are having a punt. The Sunday Times’s pollster, MRUK, is being particularly helpful and their Ivor Knox has just emailed me some information that I thought I ought to pass on. Before applying the turnout filter the first preference split had Ken leading by 45% to 42% After applying the filter which just to include those…