THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN CUT – A STATMENT WILL BE PUT ON THE SITE THE SITE DURING THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 28/29 The latest survey from ICM, has the following shares in its monthly survey for the Guardian – CON 37%(-2): LAB 36%(+1) LD 19%(-1). The comparisons are with the ICM News of the World Survey nine days ago. Surveying took place from Friday to Sunday so only about a third of those interviewed would have been aware of the…
Last week’s odds on favourite now third in the betting Just a week ago the Lib Dem President, Simon Hughes was riding high in the betting and was odds on to become the next leader. Now all has changed as a result, apparently, of nothing that he said or did. It is just that the sentiment has moved away from him. Two things seem to have happened: the acting leader, Ming Campbell put up a reasonable performance at Prime Minister’s…
Could Huhne be the beneficiary? With the revelations in the News of the World about Mark Oaten and a rent boy and the admission by the party leader in the House of Lords, Lord McNally about his drinking problem it is not a good Sunday for the party. Given the circumstances of Charles Kennedy’s departure only fifteen days ago the question has to be asked about the damage this is doing. For all of this so quickly could make the…
The PB.C comment that could make me richer At 7.39 am on January 11th Alex posted this short comment on the site. It read simply “Apparently Huhne has 5 certain backers among MPs. Why is he still 200-1?” For gamblers like me there is something very seductive about a long-shot and within a few seconds of reading Alex’s comment I had taken the £20 bet at 200/1 that was available on the Betfair betting exchange as well as £22 at…
Meanwhile the money piles on Ming Less than 24 hours after having to pull out of the Lib Dem leadership race a bookmaker has opened market on whether Mark Oaten will retain his seat at the General Election. The opening prices are 4/7 that he will and 5/4 that he won’t. This is an interesting bet because if the Tories do manage to sustain a recovery then Lib Dem seats like Winchester could be vulnerable. Oaten is a formidable campaigner…
But punters are still backing Nick Clegg Our chart tracks the implied probabilities of victory based on the best betting prices over the past twelve days since Charles Kennedy decided to step aside. With Mark Oaten now out of the race the big question outstanding is whether it will end up a fight between the three who have already declared or could the young ex-MEP, Nick Clegg spoil the party. His price is down at 19/1 so he continues to…
Are his supporters trying to influence the race through the betting? In the early hours of this morning there was a big move back to Menzies Campbell on the Betfair betting exchange and a major easing of the Simon Hughes price. From what I can ascertain there is no apparent reason – there does not appear to be anything in the papers. At 11pm last night Ming’s price was at about 1.62/1 with Hughes on 1.32/1. The latest price as…
JACKY ASHLEY WARNING: I am not a member of what Jackie Ashley in the Guardian regards as the time-served officially recognised commentariat and any views on political outcomes contained herein should be treated accordingly. Are the markets over-rating Hughes? A challenging factor for the growing number of punters on the Lib Dem race is that the only hard information we have is the YouGov poll that was published in the Daily Telegraph a few hours before Charles Kennedy made his…