Will a steady PMQ performance and tax cut promises bring support back? Newly released data from the latest Mori poll and today’s reports of police investigations into the party’s controversial £2.4m election donation are a sharp reminder that Ming Campbell has still got a lot to do to steady the nerves of his party. The poll taken at the end of May shows Ming with a 9% deficit in his approval ratings – depths that no Lib Dem leader has…
Could new poll put further pressure on Ming? The May YouGov poll in the Telegraph has the following shares with comparisons on the last survey by the pollster two weeks ago CON 38 (+1): LAB 32 (+1): LD 16 (-1). So all the main pollsters with the regular monthly newspapers slots – YouGov, Populus and ICM – put Cameron’s Conservatives on the same level of support – 38% – and this is starting to look fairly robust. But a 38%…
Will there be votes in selling the gas-guzzler? Whatever your politics you cannot but feel a touch of sympathy for new Lib Dem leader, Ming Campbell, who has felt it necessary to put his five litre 20 year old Jaguar XJS onto the market. With green issues suddenly accelerating up the political agenda it must have been quite a hard call for Campbell to know what to do about what was clearly his pride and joy. But why should he…
Betting on a leader’s survival is usually profitable As general rule the best option in the political “How long will they survive” markets is to bet that leaders will go on longer than current perceptions for that’s what they usually do. Politicians who become leaders of their parties are generally pretty tough and resilient. You don’t get to that rung on the ladder without those qualities and it is easy to underestimate them. The power of incumbency is very strong…
Betting opens on the NEXT Lib Dem leader…really! Less than four weeks after Sir Menzies Campbell was elected leader of the Liberal Democrats betting has opened on who will replace him. The four in the picture – Chris Huhne (5/1), Nick Clegg (4/6) , David Laws (4/1) and Ed Davey (5/1) are heading the early prices. Next in line are Mike Moore and Sarah Teather on 14/1. Julia Goldsworthy is 20/1, Mark Oaten 25/1, while Simon Hughes and Vince Cable…
How did the predictors do? In our Lib Dem prediction competition, pregethwr has narrowly won from bigbucksbetty to take the coveted PB.C Lib Dem leadership competition trophy for 2006. The top five places went to:- 1. pregethwr (post 86) 1.75 points 2. bigbucksbetty (134) 1.93 3. Vino (114) 2.17 4. Dan (170) 2.57 5. Baskerville (53) 2.67 The winning entry was Campbell to be the leader getting 44.9% of the first preferences and 56.3% of the votes after the Hughes…
So what happened to YouGov? After weeks of arguing and analysis the big loser this afternoon must be YouGov. After the extraordinary successes in in getting the Tory leadership battles of 2001 and 2005 right today’s victory by a 14% margin by Ming Campbell must put a big question mark over membership polls. The 56.9 to 43.1 vote split compared with the Huhne 52% to Campbell 48% share that YouGov was predicting. With the favourite slot changing hands five times…
It’s 1.08/1 on a Hung Parliament With the next Lib Dem leader due to be announced this afternoon a new Betfair market has opened on whether the next General Election will result in a hung Parliament. After pressure from several PB.C regulars the betting exchange has created a market that looks set to be the busiest in the run-up to the next election. The options are LAB Majority (2.25/1) CON Majority (3.1/1) HUNG parliament (1.08/1). At this stage just after…