Will Brown’s ratings go up or down? The Irish bookmaker, PaddyPower is now offering a monthly market on which way Brown’s YouGov approvals ratings are going to move. This is based on the monthly Sunday Times YouGov survey, the next one of which should come this weekend. Previous results can be seen here and looking at what’s happened in the past four months I think that PaddyPower price of 5/4 on it being in the 20-30% range looks great value….
Bedfordshire on Sunday Are punters reading this one right? With the Tories keen to keep up the Manchester momentum David Cameron is heading back to Bedford tomorrow where what will almost certainly be the biggest electoral test anywhere before the general election takes place on Thursday. At the stake is a by-election for one of the “US-style” mayor posts. There’s an electorate of 117,000 and there’s been a whole stream of leading politicians heading there in the past week. The…
Will they repeat their conference bounce come the election? Conference season 2009 is over and with YouGov having helpfully provided their tracker poll for Sky almost daily, now’s a good time to look back to see what lessons can be drawn for the coming months. The most obvious effect was that each of the parties gained a boost in their share during and immediately after their conference. That’s perhaps to be expected as each was able to control much of…
Will this muddy the waters in the electoral reform debate? It’s surprising that with electoral reform being pushed up the election agenda by Labour, the comments by Tory chairman, Eric Pickles, in his conference speech don’t seemed to have attracted much attention. For under the banner of the Lib Dem “fair votes” rhetoric Pickles is pressing for the Tory version of electors reform which involves cutting the numbers of seats and having fresh boundary reviews after each general election. Acknowledging…
CON 40% (+3) LAB 26% (-4) LD 20%(-1) Labour’s YouGov tracker deficit doubles After the euphoria amongst Labour supporters last night and some corresponding gloom from Tories today’s YouGov daily tracker moves the party shares back to the sort of territory that we’ve come to expect in recent months – Labour in the mid-20s and the Tories in the low 40s. Most of the online questionnaires would have been filled in last night after a day that was dominated by…
Will this make life easier for Gordon or not? There’s news this morning of a big polling development, the first product of which is seen in the panel above – the YouGov/Sky News daily tracker for the party conference season. This shows day by day how opinion changed during the last week and how the “conference effect” seems to decline as the news agenda moves on. This is unlike normal tracker polls which have generally involved only 250 fresh interviews…
CON 40 (+4) LAB 25 (+1) LD 22 (+5) All parties see increases from BPIX/YouGov Thanks to “Me” on the ICM thread for picking up today’s BPIX/YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday. The shares above are compared with the last poll from the firm which appeared on August 23rd and had a massive 23% share for others. It seemed out of line then but this latest poll is very much showing the same picture as the other post-Lib Dem…
Can Pickles entice Lib Dems into voting Tory? This week I’ve been on holiday in Hadrian’s Wall country in Northumberland away from a fast internet connection so I have been unable to catch up on what seems to have been the political broadcasting highlight – the encounter on the Today programme between Tory Chairman, Eric Pickles, and the prominent Lib Dem, Chris Huhne. See this from Harry Phibbs in the Guardian for the details and a description of Chris Huhne’s…