A forecast from Robert Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts. Currently the LDs are polling about 16-17%, which is about five points down on the peak they achieved after the European elections earlier this year. I think there’s around a 40% chance that they end up in the 14-19% range at the coming elections. I reckon there’s…
Ladbrokes make it CON 5/6: Grieve 5/6 The news at the weekend that the Liberal Democrats have decided to stand aside in the Beaconsfield constituency at the general election in order to give the incumbent MP, Dominic Grieve, a clear run has inevitably set off a betting market which looks likely to be a big one. Grieve, the former Attorney-General, has played a big part in opposing Johnson’s plans for Brexit for which he was booted out of the Conservative…
SV means the Lib Dems could pull off something extraordinary In the absence of big names and big characters, London politics has dropped off the media radar a bit. After the controversial Ken Livingstone and the future PM Boris Johnson, Sadiq Khan has been – spats with Donald Trump aside – a lower-profile mayor. Khan’s term ends, however, in less than eight months, when he’ll bid for re-election. Until recently, this was all-but assured. The Tory candidate, Shaun Bailey, looks…
Today’s YouGov: Con 32%= LD 23+4 Lab 21-2 BXP 14= There is a new YouGov poll in the Times this morning which is the first one to have taken place since the Lib Dems at their conference voted to stop Brexit even without a referendum. The figures are above and will give a lot of reassurance to the new Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, with what has been widely criticised as a massive gamble in terms of policy. It has however got…
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1172948987680382976 Surreal to think that fewer than three months ago Sam Gyimah was running to be Tory leader (and PM) and now he's a Liberal Democrat. — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 14, 2019 Bold prediction. The next Lib Dem leader is currently i) Not on this list ii) Not a member of the Lib Dems iii) Currently a member of another party pic.twitter.com/WPwZPWeKHT — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 14, 2019 All things considered I think I’ll give this market a swerve until…
CONFIRMED: Sam Gyimah is defecting to the Lib Dems — Matt Chorley (@MattChorley) September 14, 2019 Sam Gyimah, former Tory minister, slams ‘populist Johnson’ as he joins Lib Dems https://t.co/Gj11Ym32G9 — The Observer (@ObserverUK) September 14, 2019 TSE
Hearing rumours of another defection from @UKLabour to Lib Dems. If true, surprise. Bad news for what it represents. — Michael Foster (@MikeFoster1403) September 13, 2019 Eyes emoji klaxon: the Lib Dem branch in Canterbury has cancelled planned hustings for its parliamentary candidate, or rather party has. *IF* Rosie Duffield were to defect, would be hugely significant — the first member of Lab’s 17 I take to quit. https://t.co/CtbzNPE287 — Patrick Maguire (@patrickkmaguire) September 13, 2019 A spokesperson for Rosie…
A model for the next General Election? Reflecting on the Brecon outcome the most striking feature which hasn’t really been commented on is that in a seat in Wales that PC felt able to step aside in order to help defeat the pro-Brexit Tories. Given the relative closeness of the outcome it’s clear that this decision and that of the Green Party played a crucial part in this election and no doubt lessons will be learnt . We have a…