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Category: Lib Dems

Betfair punters have got the LD leadership race about right – Moran has a good chance of beating Davey

Betfair punters have got the LD leadership race about right – Moran has a good chance of beating Davey

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We’ve now got the timetable for the LD leadership race and the successor to Jo Swinson will be announced at the end of August. It looks as though the race will be between Layla Moran and Ed Davey with Daisy Cooper as possibly another candidate. The elections was due to have been underway now but has been deferred because of the pandemic. In the aftermath of Jo Swinson unexpectedly losing her seat to the SNP in the general election the…

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After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

After the ice. The Lib Dems’ prospects for 2024

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Nemesis followed hubris so quickly for Jo Swinson, they were able to pass the relay baton in the exchange zone. No sooner had she mooted the possibility of her being the next Prime Minister than she found herself dumped out of Parliament. It is a short step from the sublime to the ridiculous. The Lib Dems also went backwards in the seat count. They held 21 before the election, having won 12 in 2017 and benefited from a clump of defections. After the general…

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My money’s on Layla Moran for Jo Swinson’s old job

My money’s on Layla Moran for Jo Swinson’s old job

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s Former odds-on favourite Davey now trailing on Betfair Ever since the former Lib Dem leader, Jo Swinson, unexpectedly lost her seat to the SNP in the general election the former coalition cabinet minister Ed Davey has been the odds on favourite to succeed her. The election itself will take place after the local elections in May and we should know who the new person will be in early July. All this follows the awful general election for the party…

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Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday

Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday

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It is a sign of the sheer carnage that the LDs suffered at the general election that one of the names being actively floated as a leader is one of those who have just been elected to the House of Commons. The reason is clear. Even though the party increased its vote share by 4% it saw a reduction in its seat numbers and there is a very small pool from which the new leader can emerge. The current fourth…

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Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

Swinson’s successor needs to be someone untainted by the coalition and that can only be Layla Moran

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Ladbrokes have her at 7/1 The first post General Election next leader betting market has now opened and that is on, of course, who should succeed Jo Swinson as the next Lib Dem leader. The big problem that Jo faced during the campaign was that almost whenever she appeared on the big TV set pieces such as the Question Time special or Andrew Neil she was questioned about her time as a minister in the coalition. Inevitably she was always…

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Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

Where did it go wrong for the Lib Dems?

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This should have been their breakthrough chance Jo Swinson confidently asserted at the start of this month that her ambition from the election was to become prime minister. At the time, it sounded exuberantly audacious; in retrospect, it sounds absurd with obvious echoes of David Steel exhorting his followers to go back to their constituencies and prepare for government. Steel ended up after the 1983 election with 23 seats; Swinson, if the YouGov MRP poll has some predictive value, will…

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Swinson’s Choice

Swinson’s Choice

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There is an ancient tradition in Britain of beating the bounds, where once a year, various members of the community walk the boundaries of their parish to fix its location and protect it from encroachment. In some cases, they would take boys and whip them, with the intent that such a traumatic event would be fixed in their memory. The general elections of 2015 and 2017 were certainly traumatic events for the Liberal Democrats, and they clearly still weigh heavily…

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Ten Lib Dem seats to watch

Ten Lib Dem seats to watch

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The Lib Dems do not lack for stated public ambition. Jo Swinson is positioning herself as a potential Prime Minister after the election, which shows some optimism considering that the Lib Dems started the last Parliament with just 12 MPs and ended it with just 20, many of whom look by no means certainties to return to Parliament next time.   Still, fair lady never won with faint heart. Here are ten seats which will give a fair indication of just…

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