With  less than 18 months to go until the general election, it is worth reviewing that markets that both William Hill and Ladbrokes have on Which party will receive the most votes in the next UK General Election? The Lib Dems or UKIP. The below table shows the vote shares for the Lib Dems and UKIP in the most recent polls by the various pollsters. Pollster Lib Dem % UKIP % Populus (online) 12 7 YouGov (online) 8 14 ComRes (phone)…
Now that he is free from being a Member of Parliament, and not constrained by having to toe the party line, Chris Huhne has been offering his thoughts on a variety of subjects. Yesterday Chris Huhne wrote a piece in Juncture magazine which discusses on the formation of the current coalition in 2010, and the possibility for a Labour/Lib Dem coalition in 2015. (You can read the piece here and here’s the Guardian write up of the Huhne piece.) He says on…
Educational issues have a particular salience amongst 2010 LDs 2010 LDs more likely to back LAB on education than current ones The paramount objective of the Lib Dems is to minimise seats losses at the general election and the argument with Gove on free schools helps in a number of ways. What we are talking about is niche marketing, sending signals to significant groups of electors in the seats that will matter to the party. In the key CON-LD battlegrounds…
The bruiser who’s been brought in to out-smart Salmond The big surprise in last week’s re-shuffle was the sacking of Scottish Secretary, Michael Moore, and his replacement by the Lib Dem Chief Whip, Alistair Carmichael. Over the next 11 months Carmichael will have an increasingly high-profile role with all the focus on the Scottish referendum. The NO side needed someone who could handle SNP leader Alex Salmond which is why he’s been given the job My view is that Carmichael…
The Monday Populus online poll it out and shows CON, LAB and UKIP unchanged with the Lib Dems moving up from 11% to 14% Looking at the detail and comparing it with other recent polls from the firm most of the movement for the LDs is as a result of fewer GE2010 voters who were saying don’t know now saying they are voting for Clegg’s party. There is also a greater certainty to vote. All this is fairly normal for…
Lib Dem Conferences have always been activist focussed, less so since entering government certainly but (possibly excepting a couple of larger set piece speeches) the primary audience is usually the one sitting in the room wearing garishly yellow lanyards. What has come to the fore through those speeches, fringe events, and the conference bar (always the best place to feel the tone of a conference) is, even more than usual, is one of defiance and rallying troops for the ground…
Unlike the red and blue teams the LD conference has a formal policy making function with the result, as we’ve seen in the past, that it can embarrass the leadership. This year’s event, here in Glasgow, has so far gone okay for Clegg with votes on energy policy and tuition fees taking a pragmatic line. This morning things might just be different as delegates discuss and vote on the central issue of economic strategy. With Cable and Clegg said to…
Henry G Manson on the start of conference season Lord Oakeshott’s interview in The House magazine will capture the headlines because of his claim Nick Clegg will cost the Liberal Democrats a large amount of seats. One thing he does point to is less contentious but almost as significant – May 2014 Oakeshott believes “this will be much the biggest test we’ve had on a nationwide basis of our support and our appeal since the general election, so that’s why…