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Category: Lib Dems

Looks like the knives are out for Clegg

Looks like the knives are out for Clegg

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INDEPENDENT ON SUNDAY: Lib dem MPs in bid to oust Clegg #tomorrowspaperstoday #BBCPapers pic.twitter.com/vHrj8BqXNS — Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) May 24, 2014 The Independent on Sunday and others are reporting “The Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg, faces a showdown with Liberal Democrat MPs who are demanding that he consider his position as party leader in the wake of the disastrous European and local election results. A block of unnamed MPs are poised to demand his resignation, according to party sources, paving the…

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Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

Locals 2014: Afternoon update – The UKIP fox is in the Westminster hen house

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English council results so far via the BBC. pic.twitter.com/a1qcl07rZ3 — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) May 23, 2014 Like opinion polls, it is wise not to focus on one or two councils, but look at the broader picture. Often success  equals performance minus anticipation, using Rallings and Thrasher’s projections for the locals, of Lab 490 gains, the Cons and Lib Dems 220 and 350 losses respectively, and UKIP to make 80 gains, so far it is a great set of elections…

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Betting on the number of Lib Dem MEPs

Betting on the number of Lib Dem MEPs

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New PB Thread on how many MEPs the Lib Dems will have after the Euros http://t.co/ZHM2lWolM5 pic.twitter.com/hioJ9rUC0t — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 16, 2014 Ladbrokes have a market on how many MEPs the Lib Dems will have after the Euros. If we apply UNS to the ICM poll for the Guardian, they will end up with zero MEPs. Now this election is conducted in regions under the d’Hondt  method so a straight UNS calculation may not be apt. That said, the…

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Are we reaching a tipping point for Nick Clegg’s leadership?

Are we reaching a tipping point for Nick Clegg’s leadership?

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Polling this parliament PB Thread Are we reaching a tipping point for Clegg's leadership http://t.co/pJaMJualu0 pic.twitter.com/7GYQQtHecA — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 15, 2014 One of the constants in this parliament is each May, in the local elections, the Lib Dems lose a significant number of councillors and the Lib Dems insouciance to it all. With other parties, it may have triggered speculation about the Leader/a Leadership election. The Lib Dems motto seems to be “Keep Calm and Carry On” I suspect this…

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The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction

The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction

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The YouGov poll on who won the debate is out.   BREAKING: FARAGE WINS. Nigel beats Nick 57-36 – @YouGov/Sun poll: http://t.co/HFiBvZJLiG pic.twitter.com/iLXcPej6D5 — Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) March 26, 2014 Who won the debate between Farage & Clegg. Con voters: Farage 69%, Clegg 27%, Unsure 4%. Lab voters Clegg 51%, Farage 42%, Unsure 5% — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) March 26, 2014 Who won the debate between Farage & Clegg. LD voters: Clegg 77%, Farage 20%, Unsure 3% UKIP voters:…

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Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

Ladbrokes open betting on all 57 LD seats and make the yellows favourites to hold on to 35

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It’ll be interesting to follow the changing prices This afternoon Ladbrokes put up betting markets in every one of the 57 seats that the Lib Dems will be defending at GE2015. In 35 of them, all but one of them defences against the Tories, the Ladbrokes opening prices make the LDs favourite and in a further three Clegg’s party is join favourite. From a quick look down the list the MPs most likely to be still there on May 8th…

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Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

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And there’s a whiff of good news for the LDs at the Euros What I’ve found to be a fascinating piece of polling for the British Future think tank has just been published by Ipsos-MORI. Rather than the conventional voting intention questions interviewees were asked for views of the four main national parties and whether they’d consider voting for them in both general elections and the Euros, general elections only, the Euros only, or whether they’d never consider voting for…

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Lib Dem deposit losses at the General Election

Lib Dem deposit losses at the General Election

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The Wythenshawe & Sale East saw for the eight time in fifteen Great British by-elections since 2010 the Lib Dems lose their deposit. At the 2010 General Election, the Lib Dems were the only party out of the three established GB wide parties not to lose their deposit in any seat.  The above graph shows just how badly the Lib Dems have done, all bar one, their share of the vote has fallen, it was only in the unique circumstances behind…

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