Browsed by
Category: Leader approval ratings

We’re going through an odd period in the leader ratings – both the PM and Starmer are positive across the board

We’re going through an odd period in the leader ratings – both the PM and Starmer are positive across the board

Comments 0 Comment

Which will be first to go negative? As regular PBers will know  I am a great fan of leader ratings as to pointers to political outcomes. At the last election in December Labour was always doomed while Corbyn struggled to get out of the worst set of ratings that any opposition leader has ever seen. Now his successor is going through his honeymoon and is positive ratings which are far in excess what Corbyn achieved in his five and a…

Read More Read More

Peter’s Modest Proposal

Peter’s Modest Proposal

Comments 0 Comment

I dug out the modest proposal title partially because I wanted to declare this article as being officially semi-satirical, but mostly because it’s advocating a form of cannibalism. Politics is a vicious business at the best of times but there’s always room for a little more ruthlessness. So, this is a thought-experiment in some organised political brutality. The Peter Principle, as originally laid out by Dr Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull, is the idea that people are always promoted…

Read More Read More

Point of no return

Point of no return

Comments 0 Comment

When Emily Thornberry threw an early hat into what is likely to become a crowded Labour leadership ring she did so with a vow to step down if it ever became clear, from the polls and her colleagues, that she couldn’t win a future election as a sign of her loyalty to the party. This was a fairly obvious shot at Jeremy Corbyn who went into the 2019 GE as the with the worst ratings of any major party leader…

Read More Read More

PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections

PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections

Comments 0 Comment

I’ve written before about Jeremy Corbyn’s personal ratings difficulties, and they did not improve in the following months. In September and October of 2019, he racked up satisfaction ratings of -60, the lowest any Leader of the Opposition has rated since Ipsos-Mori started polling it in 1977 (snatching the record from Michael Foot). In October that came from satisfied a rating of 15%, the third lowest rating on record (narrowly losing out to William Hague in June of 1997 and…

Read More Read More

The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos-MORI leader ratings

Comments 0 Comment

As I have said repeatedly over the years leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. The reason is that this form of questioning is what pollsters do best – asking for opinions not seeking to get poll participants to predict whether they might take part in some future event and what they will actually do. Ipsos-MORI has been doing this in the UK since the late 1970s and has resisted the temptation to mess…

Read More Read More

Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six London remain seats

Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six London remain seats

Comments 0 Comment

In deepest Remainia the polling picture is very different For the last couple of Sundays the former YouGov president, Peter Kellner, has published a total of six constituency polls as part of an effort to examine potential tactical voting possibilities in seats which voted Remain at the referendum. So far all of them have been in London but next weekend we are promised a selection from elsewhere in England. The voting figures in all six seats have the Tories in…

Read More Read More

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

Comments 0 Comment

If these @DeltapollUK ratings are replicated with @IpsosMORI then Boris Johnson is about to repeat Theresa May's cratering of her ratings at GE2017. pic.twitter.com/fJQxWO6Hkx — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 23, 2019 Corbyn reducing the PM’s net approval ratings lead by 23 points in a week is a worrying sign for Boris Johnson. Longstanding readers of PB will know that leadership ratings are a much better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, they foretold the unexpected Conservative majorities of…

Read More Read More