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Category: Leader approval ratings

Is it all about leader ratings and the economic lead?

Is it all about leader ratings and the economic lead?

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Atul Hatwal at Labour-Uncut posted a piece yesterday about Labour’s polling, he had one observation, which stood out, and I decided to investigate if it were true, his observation was this, The fundamentals of politics do not change. Voters generally make their electoral choice on the basis of who they feel is best suited to be prime minister and which party they feel is the most economically competent. No opposition has ever won an election while being behind on both economic…

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Leader ratings 18 months before an election

Leader ratings 18 months before an election

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I thought it might be useful how Ed and Dave compare to their predecessors as Leader of the Opposition and Prime Minister, eighteen months prior to a General Election. First onto the Leader of the Opposition net ratings with Ipsos-Mori, eighteen months before the General Election. A few caveats about this data.  I’ve included Iain Duncan Smith’s final rating, before he was removed as Tory Leader, Michael Howard’s rating, is his first rating as Leader of the Opposition. Overall, it is…

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Dave’s lead as “Best PM” is nearly wiped out when you add Nigel Farage to the equation

Dave’s lead as “Best PM” is nearly wiped out when you add Nigel Farage to the equation

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Tracker questions now need to include UKIP Even when things were at their worst in the polls for the Tories party loyalists clung onto to one polling tracker – who voters saw as “Best PM” where as the chart shows Dave had enjoyed large and in the summer increasing leads. This helped fuel the strong pro-Dave narrative that we saw in the build-up to the conference season. Ed could never be PM, many were arguing, because he was so far…

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ICM leader ratings in the Mirror make miserable reading for Miliband

ICM leader ratings in the Mirror make miserable reading for Miliband

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New ICM poll for Mirror ratchets up the pressure on EdM http://t.co/zzfiy4giAn Fewer than half LAB voters satisfied pic.twitter.com/vcwlNe8uEc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 20, 2013 Is his survival till GE2015 looking less likely? There some new polling from ICM for the LAB friendly Mirror, linked to in the Tweet above, that’s certain to add to party’s jitters even though the voting intention trend continues to be for Labour. Overall just 21% of those polled said they were satisfied with his…

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While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

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The above netted off figures are based on these more detailed numbers. There were, as it turned out only two polls overnight, and the findings that I am highlighting are the party and leader favourability figures from Survation for the Mail on Sunday. These show, I’d suggest, the biggest challenges facing both the blue and red teams just 21 months before GE2015. Labour’s weak link is its leader while the big drag on Cameron is the Conservative party itself. These…

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Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfort from Mrs. Thatcher

Poor “best PM” ratings: How Ed Miliband can take some comfort from Mrs. Thatcher

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Putting those “best PM” ratings into context Polling day came a few days later May 3rd 1979. The Tories won an emphatic victory with an 8% lead on votes and an overall majority of 44 seats and went on to secure overall majorities in the next three general elections. They stayed in power for eighteen years. Mrs Thatcher, however, continued to trail in the MORI “best PM” ratings for another year until Jim Callaghan stepped down. Mike Smithson For the…

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Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year are probably going to be disappointed

Those who bet that EdM would be out by the end of the year are probably going to be disappointed

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EdM no longer on the danger list The Speccie's James Forsyth has a good summary of PMQS http://t.co/Vrgk69UawN pic.twitter.com/NnEl9MTGgr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 10, 2013 The blow up last week of the Falkirk selection contributed to EdM’s very poor start to July. He looked uncertain and less than self assured as he sought to deal with issues that opened up the whole question of Labour’s historical link with the trade union movement. This came at a time when the Labour’s…

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Leadership ratings: a good guide but not a magic measure

Leadership ratings: a good guide but not a magic measure

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And in any case, it’s too close to call right now It’s sometimes said that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them but that’s only true to a degree.  A popular and effective government will always win re-election because in such circumstances, the swing voters in the electorate will have little reason to listen to the opposition, little to gain and potentially much to lose by voting the government out no matter how good the opposition, and in all probability…

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